4000 Round Lake Rd Spc 12 · Keno, OR 97601

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1973 $42/sqft · 42% below area Est $69k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Seller! Priced to sell!! Come check out this 2 bedroom 1 ½ bath home located at the Round Lake Mobile Estates and Golf course. Property situated on a corner lot, back yard fully fenced, with raised garden beds and storage shed. New carpet in the living room and hall, dining area has built ins and hard maple flooring.

Key facts

• Well maintained
• Corner lot
• Parking

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WELL MAINTAINED
• CLOSE TO THE OUTDOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease of $510 monthly; Property is currently rented
• HOA & community: No CCRs

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; RV access/parking
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Propane; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide) located in a park; One level; May remain in park; Skirted with metal; Situated on leased land
• Construction: Built in 1973; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Metal construction components (manufacturer: Gold Metal)
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Shed(s); Corner lot; Fenced; Level lot; On golf course; Paved road; Shared access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including primary bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (total 1.5 bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Laminate countertops; Shower/tub combo; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.4% vs local median 3.0% in Keno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Klamath County SD (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 58 in OR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Henley Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #143 of 412 statewide, top 38%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Henley Middle School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #61 of 128 statewide, top 54%, 419 students, 72% FRL); Henley High School (693 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 493 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Klamath County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Klamath County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.27%
• DSCR: 4.35
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,879
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -42.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4000 Round Lake Rd #2	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	975 (+2%)	23mo	$74,010	$76	74
4000 Round Lake Rd #55	0.00mi	2/1.0	840 (-12%)	8mo	$70,000	$83	69
14103 Ravenwood Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+5%)	14mo	$249,000	$247	66
14011 Ravenwood Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+8%)	23mo	$257,000	$247	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $34,144
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.39×
• Total profit: $82,611
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97601

• Home prices YoY: -3.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 493
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $433

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $39,900 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $39,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $47,500 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $47,500 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $47,500 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $47,500 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $47,500 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $47,500 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,500 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $47,500 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $47,500 Active 454-char remark
15. 2023-09-29
    soldstatus $38,500 Closed 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Priced to sell!! Come check out this 2 bedroom 1 ½ bath home located at the Round Lake Mobile Estates and Golf course. Property situated on a corner lot, back yard fully fenced, with raised garden beds and storage shed. New carpet in the living room and hall, dining area has built ins and hard maple flooring.

16. 2023-09-12
    status Pending 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Priced to sell!! Come check out this 2 bedroom 1 ½ bath home located at the Round Lake Mobile Estates and Golf course. Property situated on a corner lot, back yard fully fenced, with raised garden beds and storage shed. New carpet in the living room and hall, dining area has built ins and hard maple flooring.

17. 2023-09-05
    price $38,500 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Priced to sell!! Come check out this 2 bedroom 1 ½ bath home located at the Round Lake Mobile Estates and Golf course. Property situated on a corner lot, back yard fully fenced, with raised garden beds and storage shed. New carpet in the living room and hall, dining area has built ins and hard maple flooring.

18. 2023-08-18
    listed $39,000 Active 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    Motivated Seller! Priced to sell!! Come check out this 2 bedroom 1 ½ bath home located at the Round Lake Mobile Estates and Golf course. Property situated on a corner lot, back yard fully fenced, with raised garden beds and storage shed. New carpet in the living room and hall, dining area has built ins and hard maple flooring.

19. 2020-01-09
    soldstatus $29,900

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Country living, close to town. This 2 bedroom 1 1/2 bath well maintained home is located in the Mobile home park next to the Round Lake Golf Course. This home has two covered decks, a metal roof, newer gutters, fenced yard with a few gates and Aspen trees, RV parking, a storage shed and the exterior was painted 4 years ago. Propane for heating, stove and dryer. Dining room has built-ins. Main bath was updated with walk-in shower with dual controls, granite counter, new sink and cabinet. There is also free extra parking available. Motivated seller, all offers will be considered. Round Lake Mobile Home Park is recently under new management, they have already begun making major facility improvements. Per Seller, the development plans will include road improvements, adding streetlight fixtures and security equipment. It will also include clubhouse & restaurant renovations, and renovations to the golf course.

20. 2019-07-26
    listed $29,900

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Country living, close to town. This 2 bedroom 1 1/2 bath well maintained home is located in the Mobile home park next to the Round Lake Golf Course. This home has two covered decks, a metal roof, newer gutters, fenced yard with a few gates and Aspen trees, RV parking, a storage shed and the exterior was painted 4 years ago. Propane for heating, stove and dryer. Dining room has built-ins. Main bath was updated with walk-in shower with dual controls, granite counter, new sink and cabinet. There is also free extra parking available. Motivated seller, all offers will be considered. Round Lake Mobile Home Park is recently under new management, they have already begun making major facility improvements. Per Seller, the development plans will include road improvements, adding streetlight fixtures and security equipment. It will also include clubhouse & restaurant renovations, and renovations to the golf course.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$997
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,187
• − Management: −$1,187
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,469
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,792
• After-tax cash flow: $5,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klamath County SD
• NCES district ID: 4107020
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,906
• Composite: 24.83/100
• National rank: #7593
• State rank: #46 of 58 in OR

Livability — Keno

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Klamath County · 56,186 people
• Metro: Klamath Falls, OR
• Population (ZIP): 22,964
• Household income: $51,780
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1323.0

Population outlook (Klamath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,870 people
• By 2030: 62,279 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 58,891 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 56,207 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 51,239 · -19.8%
• By 2100: 46,526 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Klamath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.9) · D 27.9% · R 69.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -41.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.9 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.37%
• Current HPI: 372.5418
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Klamath Falls, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+33.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $39,900 MLSCO
• 2026-05-08 Listed $47,500 MLSCO
• 2023-09-29 Sold (MLS) $38,500 MLSCO
• 2023-09-12 Pending — MLSCO
• 2023-09-05 Price Changed $38,500 MLSCO
• 2023-08-18 Listed $39,000 MLSCO
• 2020-01-09 Sold (MLS) $29,900 MLSCO
• 2019-07-26 Listed $29,900 MLSCO

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $68 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.