108 N Canal St · Los Fresnos, TX 78566

$178,990

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Built 1950 0.26 ac lot Est $280k · 36% under ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Huge living area or tv room, can be converted into a mother in law suite. Big backyard, House is 4ft higher than the street. Flood prevention

Key facts

• Big backyard
• Close to hwy 100
• Bonus room

Tags

• BIG BACKYARD
• BONUS ROOM
• CLOSE TO HWY 100
• LOS FRESNOS HIGH SCHOOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#327 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palmer-Laakso El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 495 students, 78% FRL); Los Cuates Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 809 students, 78% FRL); Los Fresnos H S (math 41% / reading 55%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 3,272 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 43% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 231 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,250 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.04%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,972
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 W 6th St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,816 (-0%)	14mo	$179,900	$99	54
403 Valle Alto Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,870 (+3%)	12mo	$299,000	$160	52
925 Daisy Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,684 (-7%)	24mo	$259,000	$154	42
307 Red Oak Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,007 (+10%)	16mo	$285,000	$142	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $60,129
• Equity at exit: $110,052

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $169,148
• Equity at exit: $197,479

Cash invested: $50,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78566

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $178,990

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $292	-5% $231	+0% $169	+5% $107	+10% $45
Rent	-10% $28	-5% $98	+0% $169	+5% $239	+10% $309
Rate	-1.0pp $259	-0.5pp $214	base $169	+0.5pp $122	+1.0pp $75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,748
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 Olive St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1835	$1,650	$0.90	22d	1	0.55mi
121 Mimosa St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1790	$1,650	$0.92	44d	1	0.59mi
121 Mimosa St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1790	$1,750	$0.98	14d	1	0.59mi
123 Mimosa St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1835	$1,650	$0.90	14d	1	0.60mi
110 Olive St Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	1975	$1,700	$0.86	44d	1	0.61mi
32936 Samuel Rd Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	3.0	2156	$2,000	$0.93	44d	1	0.93mi
33267 Harvey Escalante Rd Unit 2 Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,500	$1.19	22d	1	0.98mi
518 Oriole Dr Los Fresnos, TX	3.0	2.5	2206	$2,900	$1.31	44d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2025-11-25
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-22
   status Active
3. 2025-10-22
   price $178,990
4. 2025-10-16
   historical
5. 2025-10-07
   price $179,000
6. 2025-10-06
   price $183,500
7. 2025-09-26
   price $183,910
8. 2025-09-24
   price $183,920
9. 2025-09-23
   price $183,930
10. 2025-09-18
    price $183,940
11. 2025-09-12
    price $183,950
12. 2025-09-11
    price $183,960
13. 2025-09-10
    price $183,970
14. 2025-09-09
    price $183,980
15. 2025-09-08
    price $183,990
16. 2025-09-03
    price $184,000
17. 2025-09-01
    price $186,940
18. 2025-09-01
    price $186,950
19. 2025-08-28
    price $186,960
20. 2025-08-26
    price $186,970
21. 2025-08-26
    price $186,980
22. 2025-08-23
    price $186,990
23. 2025-08-22
    listed $187,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,026
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$878
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$211
• After-tax cash flow: $2,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Fresnos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828290
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,586
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5601
• State rank: #444 of 826 in TX

Livability — Los Fresnos

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #327
• US rank: #7193

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Fresnos, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,927

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 45% White 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Spanish 67%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Current HPI: 218.1236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-25 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2025-10-22 Relisted — RGVMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $178,990 RGVMLS
• 2025-10-16 Delisted — RGVMLS
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $179,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $183,500 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $183,910 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $183,920 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $183,930 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $183,940 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $183,950 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $183,960 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $183,970 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $183,980 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $183,990 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $184,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $186,940 RGVMLS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $186,950 RGVMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $186,960 RGVMLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $186,970 RGVMLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $186,980 RGVMLS
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $186,990 RGVMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $187,000 RGVMLS