1438 SE Larkwood Cir · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$179,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 921 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1979 3,851 sqft lot Est $220k · 18% under $213/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lowest priced 2/1 unit with garage in the entire area! Recently renovated and move in ready! No age restrictions, low HOA fees, pool, tennis and basketball courts and clubhouse. Conveniently located near beaches, shops, restaurants and hospital. Sold AS-IS. Cash preferred. Room measurements are approximate. Please verify if important.

Key facts

• Low hoa fees
• Tennis courts
• Pool

Tags

• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• MOVE IN READY
• LOW HOA FEES
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• BASKETBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (contact for details)
• HOA & community: Community amenities include basketball court, clubhouse, fitness center, pool (heated), and tennis courts; HOA/association fee collected quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered space, total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; West-facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Assessor-reported living area 921; Resale property
• Exterior features: Not waterfront; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Electric cooktop
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $180k implies a 213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.54%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,119
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1429 SE Larkwood Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,024 (+11%)	13mo	$245,000	$239	65
1408 SE Rivergreen Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,041 (+13%)	14mo	$239,900	$230	51
1362 SE La Haven Ct	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,041 (+13%)	19mo	$225,000	$216	50
2050 SE Triumph Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	998 (+8%)	24mo	$300,000	$301	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-19,007
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-8,896
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,140/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$213
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,679

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1456 SE Rivergreen Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,825	$1.98	14d	1	0.18mi
1350 SE La Haven Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1041	$2,100	$2.02	23d	1	0.19mi
1455 SE Colchester Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,795	$1.95	14d	1	0.38mi
1516 SE Royal Green Cir #202 Port St Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	921	$2,100	$2.28	23d	1	0.46mi
1520 SE Royal Green Cir Unit K-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	23d	1	0.48mi
1524 SE Royal Green Cir Unit Q102 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$1,800	$2.08	14d	1	0.50mi
1550 SE Royal Green Cir Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,850	$2.37	14d	1	0.51mi
1562 SE Royal Green Cir Unit T-204 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,900	$2.43	23d	1	0.51mi
1536 SE Royal Green Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,750	$2.24	23d	1	0.52mi
1537 SE Royal Green Cir Unit E204 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,750	$1.98	14d	1	0.56mi
1565 SE Royal Green Cir #108 Port St Lucie, FL	1.0	1.0	705	$1,595	$2.26	14d	1	0.61mi
1503 SE Royal Green Cir Unit V104 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$1,750	$2.02	23d	1	0.61mi
1548 SE Royal Green Cir Unit M-103 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	23d	1	0.61mi
1548 SE Royal Green Cir #108 Port St Lucie, FL	1.0	1.0	705	$1,650	$2.34	14d	1	0.62mi
1550 SE Royal Green Cir Unit P-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,750	$2.24	23d	1	0.62mi
1566 SE Royal Green Cir #203 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$2,000	$2.56	14d	1	0.65mi
9905 S US Highway 1 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$2,239	$2.32	14d	15	0.73mi
1810 SE Pinewood Trl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,055	$2.03	14d	7	0.81mi
1811 SE Walton Lakes Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,926	$1.72	14d	6	1.03mi
991 SE Walters Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1040	$8,500	$8.17	23d	1	1.04mi
1500 SE Tiffany Club Pl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,922	$2.15	14d	7	1.20mi
2051 SE Hillmoor Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$2,539	$2.50	23d	15	1.25mi
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	14d	15	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $213 · $2,556/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 336-char remark

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   Lowest priced 2/1 unit with garage in the entire area! Recently renovated and move in ready! No age restrictions, low HOA fees, pool, tennis and basketball courts and clubhouse. Conveniently located near beaches, shops, restaurants and hospital. Sold AS-IS. Cash preferred. Room measurements are approximate. Please verify if important.

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   Lowest priced 2/1 unit with garage in the entire area! Recently renovated and move in ready! No age restrictions, low HOA fees, pool, tennis and basketball courts and clubhouse. Conveniently located near beaches, shops, restaurants and hospital. Sold AS-IS. Cash preferred. Room measurements are approximate. Please verify if important.

3. 2026-04-10
   listed $179,900 Active 336-char remark

   Show marketing remark (336 chars)

   Lowest priced 2/1 unit with garage in the entire area! Recently renovated and move in ready! No age restrictions, low HOA fees, pool, tennis and basketball courts and clubhouse. Conveniently located near beaches, shops, restaurants and hospital. Sold AS-IS. Cash preferred. Room measurements are approximate. Please verify if important.

4. 2026-04-09
   listed $179,900 Active
5. 2015-01-13
   soldstatus $57,500
6. 1979-03-01
   soldstatus $42,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,140 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$353/yr (+$29/mo · 30.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,041
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,140
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − HOA: −$2,556
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$552
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$133
• After-tax cash flow: $2,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+325.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $179,900 Beaches MLS
• 2015-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 1979-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,140 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.