4950 N Miller Rd #337 · Scottsdale, AZ 85251

$182,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 726 sqft · Condo public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1971 $251/sqft · 24% below area Est $241k · 24% under $532/mo HOA · 31% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming condo is ideally located in the heart of Scottsdale, offering convenience and vibrant surroundings. The 1-bedroom, 1-bath residence features an updated kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, opening to a bright and inviting living area filled with natural light. Step outside to a large balcony overlooking the sparkling community pool—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. An updated bathroom completes this well-maintained home, making it an excellent full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Large balcony
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE BALCONY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• UPDATED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $182k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-252 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 582 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.

Recommended offer $137,497 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.93%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,603
• List price: $182,000
• Delta: -24.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-50,283
• Equity at exit: $27,137

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-82,740
• Equity at exit: $15,736

Cash invested: $50,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85251

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,699 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $379/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$532
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,017

Max offer price $137,497

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,500
• Closing costs: $5,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4950 N Miller Rd #339 Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	726	$1,800	$2.48	24d	1	0.02mi
4950 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	726	$1,388	$1.91	16d	3	0.05mi
4950 N Miller Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	726	$1,475	$2.03	14d	2	0.05mi
7436 E Chaparral Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,399	$1.77	3d	6	0.12mi
7436 E Chaparral Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,800	$2.28	18d	3	0.12mi
4924 N Woodmere Fairway Unit 1 Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$2,000	$3.08	24d	1	0.16mi
7430 E Chaparral Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,300	$1.51	2d	4	0.18mi
4625 N 73rd St Unit 1001 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	700	$2,795	$3.99	14d	1	0.40mi
4735 N Scottsdale Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	991	$1,999	$2.02	1d	14	0.47mi
7749 E Camelback Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	924	$1,212	$1.31	1d	24	0.53mi
7979 E Camelback Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$1,145	$1.26	2d	24	0.66mi
4848 N Goldwater Blvd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,766	$1.93	1d	39	0.66mi
7350 E Stetson Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	836	$2,129	$2.55	1d	5	0.68mi
4343 N 78th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	698	$1,302	$1.87	1d	12	0.68mi
4247 N 78th St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	640	$1,250	$1.95	24d	1	0.79mi
7025 E Via Soleri Dr Scottsdale, AZ	—	1.0	599	$2,081	$3.47	24d	1	0.92mi
7025 E Via Soleri Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	928	$3,425	$3.69	1d	17	0.92mi
4140 N 78th St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,400	$1.60	3d	17	0.92mi
4111 N Drinkwater Blvd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$1,605	$1.58	1d	18	0.94mi
4120 N 78th St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	711	$1,500	$2.11	14d	2	0.97mi
4120 N 78th St #204 Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	709	$1,800	$2.54	4d	1	0.97mi
4238 N Craftsman Ct Unit 1558688P Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	721	$2,191	$3.04	7d	1	0.98mi
4238 N Craftsman Ct Unit 1558681P Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	721	$2,420	$3.36	13d	1	0.98mi
6895 E Camelback Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1279	$3,665	$2.87	1d	59	1.02mi
5995 N 78th St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–3.5	761	$1,300	$1.71	43d	8	1.04mi
4600 N 68th St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	844	$1,695	$2.01	24d	4	1.06mi
4600 N 68th St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	844	$2,500	$2.96	10d	3	1.06mi
4600 N 68th St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	843	$2,200	$2.61	43d	4	1.06mi
4630 N 68th St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	861	$1,395	$1.62	13d	5	1.07mi
4020 N Parkway Ave Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$1,195	$2.17	24d	4	1.08mi
4630 N 68th St Unit 1558632P Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	699	$1,781	$2.55	2d	1	1.09mi
5995 N 78th St Unit 101 Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	2.0	664	$2,800	$4.22	43d	1	1.10mi
8507 E Hazelwood St Unit Guest H Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	529	$3,400	$6.43	43d	1	1.20mi
7601 E 2nd St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	752	$4,000	$5.32	43d	2	1.24mi
7601 E 2nd St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	752	$3,488	$4.64	3d	2	1.24mi
7601 E 2nd St Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	752	$3,488	$4.64	24d	2	1.24mi
3600 Hayden Rd Unit 1546274P Scottsdale, AZ	1.0	1.0	721	$1,863	$2.58	12d	1	1.32mi
3600 N Hayden Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,595	$1.88	5d	10	1.34mi
3600 N Hayden Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$2,379	$2.80	43d	8	1.34mi
3600 N Hayden Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,625	$1.92	3d	9	1.34mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $532 · $6,384/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $182,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $182,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $182,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $182,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $182,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $182,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $182,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $182,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $182,000 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $185,000 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    This charming condo is ideally located in the heart of Scottsdale, offering convenience and vibrant surroundings. The 1-bedroom, 1-bath residence features an updated kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, opening to a bright and inviting living area filled with natural light. Step outside to a large balcony overlooking the sparkling community pool—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. An updated bathroom completes this well-maintained home, making it an excellent full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or investment opportunity.

16. 2026-04-16
    price $192,000 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    This charming condo is ideally located in the heart of Scottsdale, offering convenience and vibrant surroundings. The 1-bedroom, 1-bath residence features an updated kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, opening to a bright and inviting living area filled with natural light. Step outside to a large balcony overlooking the sparkling community pool—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. An updated bathroom completes this well-maintained home, making it an excellent full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or investment opportunity.

17. 2026-03-26
    price $195,000 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    This charming condo is ideally located in the heart of Scottsdale, offering convenience and vibrant surroundings. The 1-bedroom, 1-bath residence features an updated kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, opening to a bright and inviting living area filled with natural light. Step outside to a large balcony overlooking the sparkling community pool—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. An updated bathroom completes this well-maintained home, making it an excellent full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or investment opportunity.

18. 2026-02-26
    price $200,000 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    This charming condo is ideally located in the heart of Scottsdale, offering convenience and vibrant surroundings. The 1-bedroom, 1-bath residence features an updated kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, opening to a bright and inviting living area filled with natural light. Step outside to a large balcony overlooking the sparkling community pool—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. An updated bathroom completes this well-maintained home, making it an excellent full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or investment opportunity.

19. 2026-01-30
    listed $204,000 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    This charming condo is ideally located in the heart of Scottsdale, offering convenience and vibrant surroundings. The 1-bedroom, 1-bath residence features an updated kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, opening to a bright and inviting living area filled with natural light. Step outside to a large balcony overlooking the sparkling community pool—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. An updated bathroom completes this well-maintained home, making it an excellent full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or investment opportunity.

20. 2026-01-28
    historical
21. 2026-01-15
    price $204,000
22. 2025-12-01
    listed $209,000 Active
23. 2025-11-21
    soldstatus $188,500
24. 2018-07-10
    soldstatus $141,000 Closed
25. 2018-07-10
    soldstatus $141,000
26. 2018-06-14
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
27. 2018-06-06
    price $150,000
28. 2018-06-06
    status Active
29. 2018-05-04
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
30. 2018-05-03
    status Pending
31. 2018-04-29
    listed $145,000 Active
32. 2016-08-08
    soldstatus $90,500 Closed
33. 2016-08-08
    soldstatus $90,500
34. 2016-07-30
    listed Under Contract Accepting Backups
35. 2016-07-29
    soldstatus $90,500 Closed
36. 2016-05-17
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
37. 2016-05-02
    listed $99,990 Active
38. 2016-04-01
    historical
39. 2016-03-08
    price $99,990
40. 2016-01-28
    listed $104,900 Active
41. 2009-10-23
    historical
42. 2009-07-29
    listed $99,900
43. 2005-12-31
    historical
44. 2005-08-31
    listed $159,918
45. 1989-11-21
    soldstatus $29,000
46. 1984-06-25
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $379 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,201 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$823/yr (+$69/mo · 217.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,195
• − Property taxes: −$379
• − Insurance: −$910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,631
• − Management: −$1,631
• − HOA: −$6,384
• − Depreciation: −$5,295
• Taxable loss: −$6,040
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsdale Unified District (4240)
• NCES district ID: 0407570
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,139
• Composite: 48.02/100
• National rank: #2196
• State rank: #30 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 40,780
• Household income: $92,851
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2259.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -672.80%
• Current HPI: 372.433
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+270.0% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $185,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $192,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $200,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $204,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $204,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $209,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $188,500 Public Records
• 2018-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $141,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-10 Sold (MLS) $141,000 ARMLS
• 2018-06-14 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-06-06 Price Changed $150,000 ARMLS
• 2018-06-06 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2018-05-04 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2018-05-03 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-04-29 Listed $145,000 ARMLS
• 2016-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records
• 2016-08-08 Sold (MLS) $90,500 ARMLS
• 2016-07-30 Listed — ARMLS
• 2016-07-29 Sold (MLS) $90,500 ARMLS
• 2016-05-17 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2016-05-02 Listed $99,990 ARMLS
• 2016-04-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2016-03-08 Price Changed $99,990 ARMLS
• 2016-01-28 Listed $104,900 ARMLS
• 2009-10-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-07-29 Listed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2005-12-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-08-31 Listed $159,918 ARMLS
• 1989-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1984-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $379 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.