12 Robert Dr · Haviland, NY 12538

$325,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,489 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1964 1.00 ac lot Est $463k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious and lovingly maintained home in wonderful neighborhood on park-like acre. Huge addition makes this not your usual raised ranch. Gracious liv rm. HW floors. Large fdrm. Huge country EIK (remodeled 1997)w walk-in pantry. Main floor fam rm & large lower level fam rm. Covered porch. Furnace new 1998. Vinyl siding, windows, & wall ac unit new 2002. New oil tank 2005. Easy access to train for commuters. * Large shed not staying *

Key facts

• Private one acre lot
• Large family room
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE ONE ACRE LOT
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $320k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.2% in Haviland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#712 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hyde Park Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #316 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ralph R Smith School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,786 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 340 students, 54% FRL); Haviland Middle School (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #413 of 729 statewide, top 57%, 759 students, 59% FRL); Franklin D Roosevelt Senior High School (math 93% / reading 90%, grade A+, #197 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,136 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 34% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $274k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.

Recommended offer $320,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.96%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $462,954
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Roe Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,420 (-3%)	11mo	$250,000	$103	76
4 Carlyle Rd	0.19mi	4/3.5	2,408 (-3%)	4mo	$470,000	$195	74
34 Lawrence Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0	2,220 (-11%)	4mo	$411,866	$186	69
15 Wright Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,458 (-1%)	3mo	$439,000	$179	63
8 Margaret Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,300 (-8%)	20mo	$409,900	$178	61
2 Bear Hollow Ln	0.27mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,200 (-12%)	6mo	$759,000	$345	52
36 Valkill Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,592 (+4%)	10mo	$560,000	$216	50
172 Roosevelt Rd	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,672 (+7%)	8mo	$515,500	$193	48
3 Haviland Rd	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,573 (+3%)	20mo	$375,000	$146	41
171 Roosevelt Rd	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,126 (-15%)	12mo	$380,000	$179	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-13,886
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $38,706
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12538

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$812 /mo · $9,742/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$865
• Net cashflow: $604

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,356

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Roe Dr Hyde Park, NY	5.0	3.0	2200	$4,200	$1.91	44d	1	0.09mi
5 Idlewild Dr Poughkeepsie, NY	5.0	3.0	2316	$4,000	$1.73	23d	1	0.57mi
171 Roosevelt Rd Hyde Park, NY	4.0	4.0	2126	$3,775	$1.78	14d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-04
   listed $325,000 Active
3. 2009-03-18
   soldstatus $273,500
4. 2009-03-06
   soldstatus $273,500 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   Spacious and lovingly maintained home in wonderful neighborhood on park-like acre. Huge addition makes this not your usual raised ranch. Gracious liv rm. HW floors. Large fdrm. Huge country EIK (remodeled 1997)w walk-in pantry. Main floor fam rm & large lower level fam rm. Covered porch. Furnace new 1998. Vinyl siding, windows, & wall ac unit new 2002. New oil tank 2005. Easy access to train for commuters. * Large shed not staying *

5. 2008-11-21
   historical 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   Spacious and lovingly maintained home in wonderful neighborhood on park-like acre. Huge addition makes this not your usual raised ranch. Gracious liv rm. HW floors. Large fdrm. Huge country EIK (remodeled 1997)w walk-in pantry. Main floor fam rm & large lower level fam rm. Covered porch. Furnace new 1998. Vinyl siding, windows, & wall ac unit new 2002. New oil tank 2005. Easy access to train for commuters. * Large shed not staying *

6. 2008-11-21
   price $283,500 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   Spacious and lovingly maintained home in wonderful neighborhood on park-like acre. Huge addition makes this not your usual raised ranch. Gracious liv rm. HW floors. Large fdrm. Huge country EIK (remodeled 1997)w walk-in pantry. Main floor fam rm & large lower level fam rm. Covered porch. Furnace new 1998. Vinyl siding, windows, & wall ac unit new 2002. New oil tank 2005. Easy access to train for commuters. * Large shed not staying *

7. 2008-10-16
   listed $273,500 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   Spacious and lovingly maintained home in wonderful neighborhood on park-like acre. Huge addition makes this not your usual raised ranch. Gracious liv rm. HW floors. Large fdrm. Huge country EIK (remodeled 1997)w walk-in pantry. Main floor fam rm & large lower level fam rm. Covered porch. Furnace new 1998. Vinyl siding, windows, & wall ac unit new 2002. New oil tank 2005. Easy access to train for commuters. * Large shed not staying *

8. 2008-10-15
   historical
9. 2008-06-03
   listed
10. 2008-05-20
    historical
11. 2008-02-19
    listed
12. 1994-07-20
    soldstatus $131,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,742 · $812/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,742 · $812/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$9,742
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,956
• − Management: −$3,956
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $2,513
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$603
• After-tax cash flow: $6,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hyde Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615180
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $68,932
• Composite: 46.59/100
• National rank: #2421
• State rank: #316 of 590 in NY

Livability — Haviland

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #712
• US rank: #13550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haviland, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,104

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.47%
• Current HPI: 272.998
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+148.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $273,500 Public Records
• 2009-03-06 Sold (MLS) $273,500 HGMLS
• 2008-11-21 Price Changed $283,500 HGMLS
• 2008-11-21 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2008-10-16 Listed $273,500 HGMLS
• 2008-10-15 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2008-06-03 Listed — HGMLS
• 2008-05-20 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2008-02-19 Listed — HGMLS
• 1994-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,742 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.