11157 Hidden Creek Dr · Gulfport, MS 39503

$204,300

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,061 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1998 0.38 ac lot $99/sqft · 7% below area Est $226k · 10% under ↓ 24% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Is there a 4-bed home in Gulfport under $230K with renovation potential? This 4-bedroom single family home in Gulfport offers 2,135 sq ft, a handicap accessible layout, and strong upside for buyers using 203K or renovation loans. Welcome to 11157 Hidden Creek Dr in Gulfport, MS. This two-story brick home offers 2,135 sq ft with a versatile layout, including a handicap-accessible bedroom and shower on the main level, a living room with a wood-burning fireplace, and a foyer entry with ceramic tile. The kitchen includes tile countertops and white appliances with an adjacent dining area. Upstairs features a primary bedroom and bath with a jetted tub, separate shower, and single vanity. Two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and a loft space ideal for an office or flex use are also upstairs. Interior features include ceiling fans, central HVAC, and an interior laundry room. Exterior highlights include a covered patio, a large privacy fenced backyard, and an approximately 0.38-acre lot with a storage shed. Home requires repairs and updates, and is not likely to qualify for standard FHA or VA financing in its current condition; however, it is FHA 203K eligible and may be suitable for renovation loan buyers, including VA renovation loan options. Property is being sold AS-IS. For more info and to place a bid, visit HUDhomestore.gov. Case #281-349452

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Tile countertops
• Separate shower

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• CERAMIC TILE FOYER
• TILE COUNTERTOPS
• JETTED TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• DOUBLE VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,042 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.40%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,460
• List price: $204,300
• Delta: -9.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11414 Lorraine Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,077 (+1%)	4mo	$267,000	$129	75
11158 Alden Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,125 (+3%)	16mo	$215,000	$101	70
11414 Pecan Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,881 (-9%)	6mo	$199,500	$106	63
12158 Parc Aux Chenes	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,029 (-2%)	4mo	$340,385	$168	60
12164 Parc Aux Chenes	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,041 (-1%)	0mo	$337,985	$166	60
12024 Parc Aux Chenes	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,991 (-3%)	8mo	$345,335	$173	56
12037 Parc Merlot	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,221 (+8%)	0mo	$362,642	$163	56
12048 Parc Aux Chenes	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,211 (+7%)	1mo	$374,107	$169	53
12004 Parc Merlot	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,966 (-5%)	10mo	$344,140	$175	51
12168 Parc Aux Chenes	0.67mi	4/3.0	1,991 (-3%)	8mo	$337,405	$169	51
11208 Creek Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,808 (-12%)	16mo	$230,000	$127	50
12014 Parc Merlot	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,354 (+14%)	2mo	$508,800	$216	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,481
• Equity at exit: $30,462

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $63,183
• Equity at exit: $17,664

Cash invested: $57,204 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,071
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $646/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,532

Max offer price $204,300

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $410	+0% $353	+5% $295	+10% $237
Rent	-10% $196	-5% $274	+0% $353	+5% $431	+10% $509
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $405	base $353	+0.5pp $300	+1.0pp $246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,075
• Closing costs: $6,129
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11258 Laura Ln Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,870	$1.23	22d	1	0.27mi
12258 Fraizer Ln Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,795	$1.17	22d	1	0.94mi
12271 Dedeaux Rd Gulfport, MS	3.0	1.5	1462	$1,350	$0.92	44d	1	1.28mi
10099 Bald Eagle Dr Biloxi, MS	4.0	2.0	1930	$1,725	$0.89	14d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,300 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,300 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,300 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,300 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $204,300 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,300 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $204,300 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $204,300 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $204,300 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $204,300 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,300 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,300 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,300 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $204,300 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $204,300 1366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1366 chars)

    Is there a 4-bed home in Gulfport under $230K with renovation potential? This 4-bedroom single family home in Gulfport offers 2,135 sq ft, a handicap accessible layout, and strong upside for buyers using 203K or renovation loans. Welcome to 11157 Hidden Creek Dr in Gulfport, MS. This two-story brick home offers 2,135 sq ft with a versatile layout, including a handicap-accessible bedroom and shower on the main level, a living room with a wood-burning fireplace, and a foyer entry with ceramic tile. The kitchen includes tile countertops and white appliances with an adjacent dining area. Upstairs features a primary bedroom and bath with a jetted tub, separate shower, and single vanity. Two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and a loft space ideal for an office or flex use are also upstairs. Interior features include ceiling fans, central HVAC, and an interior laundry room. Exterior highlights include a covered patio, a large privacy fenced backyard, and an approximately 0.38-acre lot with a storage shed. Home requires repairs and updates, and is not likely to qualify for standard FHA or VA financing in its current condition; however, it is FHA 203K eligible and may be suitable for renovation loan buyers, including VA renovation loan options. Property is being sold AS-IS. For more info and to place a bid, visit HUDhomestore.gov. Case #281-349452

16. 2026-04-03
    listed $227,000 Active 1366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1366 chars)

    Is there a 4-bed home in Gulfport under $230K with renovation potential? This 4-bedroom single family home in Gulfport offers 2,135 sq ft, a handicap accessible layout, and strong upside for buyers using 203K or renovation loans. Welcome to 11157 Hidden Creek Dr in Gulfport, MS. This two-story brick home offers 2,135 sq ft with a versatile layout, including a handicap-accessible bedroom and shower on the main level, a living room with a wood-burning fireplace, and a foyer entry with ceramic tile. The kitchen includes tile countertops and white appliances with an adjacent dining area. Upstairs features a primary bedroom and bath with a jetted tub, separate shower, and single vanity. Two additional bedrooms, a full bath, and a loft space ideal for an office or flex use are also upstairs. Interior features include ceiling fans, central HVAC, and an interior laundry room. Exterior highlights include a covered patio, a large privacy fenced backyard, and an approximately 0.38-acre lot with a storage shed. Home requires repairs and updates, and is not likely to qualify for standard FHA or VA financing in its current condition; however, it is FHA 203K eligible and may be suitable for renovation loan buyers, including VA renovation loan options. Property is being sold AS-IS. For more info and to place a bid, visit HUDhomestore.gov. Case #281-349452

17. 2024-05-01
    historical
18. 2024-02-29
    price $259,000
19. 2023-10-17
    listed $270,000 Active
20. 2008-12-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $646 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,614 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$968/yr (+$81/mo · 149.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,444
• − Property taxes: −$646
• − Insurance: −$1,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − Depreciation: −$5,943
• Taxable income: $888
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$213
• After-tax cash flow: $4,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulfport, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-24.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $204,300 MLSU
• 2026-04-03 Listed $227,000 MLSU
• 2024-05-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-02-29 Price Changed $259,000 MLSU
• 2023-10-17 Listed $270,000 MLSU
• 2008-12-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $646 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.