14516 Lockslie Trl · Savage, MN 55378

$300,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,694 sqft · Townhouse public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1999 1,306 sqft lot $177/sqft · 22% below area Est $360k · 17% under $400/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great end-unit townhome which features bright and neutral decor, a gas fireplace, a large deck, open floor plan and a flexible lower level bedroom or family room. 3 baths, one on each level! Great location!

Key facts

• Flex space
• End-unit townhome
• Outdoor space

Tags

• END-UNIT TOWNHOME
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE LOCATION
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• GENEROUS FAMILY ROOM
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Omega association with $400 monthly fee; HOA covers lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels
• Construction: 1,591 foundation area
• Exterior features: Stone and vinyl exterior; Balcony

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (two on upper level, one in lower level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One three-quarter bathroom (basement); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Informal dining area; Gas fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (27.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.8% in Savage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#118 in MN, #2,692 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Prior Lake-Savage Area Schools (suburban): math 56% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #32 of 301 in MN (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Redtail Ridge Elementary School (math 65% / reading 62%, grade B, #162 of 857 statewide, top 19%, 597 students, 14% FRL); Prior Lake-Savage Middle School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade C-, #90 of 258 statewide, top 35%, 1,987 students, 20% FRL); Prior Lake High School (math 52% / reading 66%, grade C+, #53 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 2,857 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 87 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 699 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Scott County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $131k; list at $300k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $217,017 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.71%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,309
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -16.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-75,369
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-90,894
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55378

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,438 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,566/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,032

Max offer price $217,017

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-300	-5% $-385	+0% $-470	+5% $-555	+10% $-640
Rent	-10% $-662	-5% $-566	+0% $-470	+5% $-373	+10% $-277
Rate	-1.0pp $-319	-0.5pp $-393	base $-470	+0.5pp $-547	+1.0pp $-627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14125 Louisiana Ave S Savage, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$2,516	$2.45	0d	26	0.50mi
14975 Pinto Ln Savage, MN	3.0	2.5	1389	$1,875	$1.35	46d	1	0.60mi
14098 Yosemite Ave S Savage, MN	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,939	$1.42	26d	1	0.91mi
8315 Cedarview Cir Savage, MN	3.0	3.0	1872	$2,450	$1.31	45d	1	0.99mi
15311 Louisiana Ave Savage, MN	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,649	$1.50	16d	1	1.07mi
13784 Yosemite Ave S Savage, MN	3.0	3.0	1821	$2,969	$1.63	18d	1	1.15mi
13743 Yosemite Ave S Savage, MN	4.0	2.0	2200	$2,495	$1.13	45d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $300,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $300,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $300,000 Active 647-char remark
17. 2014-09-02
    soldstatus $131,000
18. 2014-08-14
    soldstatus $131,000 Sold 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great end-unit townhome which features bright and neutral decor, a gas fireplace, a large deck, open floor plan and a flexible lower level bedroom or family room. 3 baths, one on each level! Great location!

19. 2014-08-14
    soldstatus $131,000

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great end-unit townhome which features bright and neutral decor, a gas fireplace, a large deck, open floor plan and a flexible lower level bedroom or family room. 3 baths, one on each level! Great location!

20. 2014-08-14
    soldstatus $131,000

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great end-unit townhome which features bright and neutral decor, a gas fireplace, a large deck, open floor plan and a flexible lower level bedroom or family room. 3 baths, one on each level! Great location!

21. 2014-07-28
    status Pending 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great end-unit townhome which features bright and neutral decor, a gas fireplace, a large deck, open floor plan and a flexible lower level bedroom or family room. 3 baths, one on each level! Great location!

22. 2014-06-30
    historical Contingent - Third Party Approval 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great end-unit townhome which features bright and neutral decor, a gas fireplace, a large deck, open floor plan and a flexible lower level bedroom or family room. 3 baths, one on each level! Great location!

23. 2014-06-26
    status Pending 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great end-unit townhome which features bright and neutral decor, a gas fireplace, a large deck, open floor plan and a flexible lower level bedroom or family room. 3 baths, one on each level! Great location!

24. 2014-06-07
    historical Contingent - Third Party Approval 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great end-unit townhome which features bright and neutral decor, a gas fireplace, a large deck, open floor plan and a flexible lower level bedroom or family room. 3 baths, one on each level! Great location!

25. 2014-06-03
    listed $128,000 Active 206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great end-unit townhome which features bright and neutral decor, a gas fireplace, a large deck, open floor plan and a flexible lower level bedroom or family room. 3 baths, one on each level! Great location!

26. 2014-06-03
    listed $128,000

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great end-unit townhome which features bright and neutral decor, a gas fireplace, a large deck, open floor plan and a flexible lower level bedroom or family room. 3 baths, one on each level! Great location!

27. 2014-06-03
    listed $128,000

    Show marketing remark (206 chars)

    Great end-unit townhome which features bright and neutral decor, a gas fireplace, a large deck, open floor plan and a flexible lower level bedroom or family room. 3 baths, one on each level! Great location!

28. 2006-04-26
    soldstatus $180,000
29. 2000-08-25
    soldstatus $149,455

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,566 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,566 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,566
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,340
• − Management: −$2,340
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$10,828
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,599
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prior Lake-Savage Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2730060
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $96,810
• Composite: 53.47/100
• National rank: #1457
• State rank: #32 of 301 in MN

Livability — Savage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #2692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Savage, MN
• County: Scott County · 116,975 people
• City population: 32,162
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 32,162
• Household income: $124,871
• Rent vs Own: 14.5% rent · 85.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 511.0

Population outlook (Scott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,899 people
• By 2030: 177,290 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 199,019 · +20.0%
• By 2050: 216,883 · +30.7%
• By 2075: 256,099 · +54.4%
• By 2100: 276,434 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Scott

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.8% · R 53.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: -11.2pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.05%
• Current HPI: 215.338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+100.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-14 Sold (MLS) $131,000 LSAR
• 2014-08-14 Sold (MLS) $131,000 RASM
• 2014-08-14 Sold (MLS) $131,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-28 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-30 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-26 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-07 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-03 Listed $128,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-03 Listed $128,000 LSAR
• 2014-06-03 Listed $128,000 RASM
• 2006-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $149,455 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,566 · +30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.