53 Alder Dr · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$349,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,053 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1935 10,019 sqft lot $332/sqft · 24% below area Est $460k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Find Comfort And Joy In This Agreeable 2-Bedroom Ranch. You Will Appreciate Features Like These: Spa, Garage And Vaulted Ceilings. The Fully Fenced Yard Offers Opportunity For Special Garden Projects And Play Space. Further Amenities Included In This Haven Are: Patio, Wood Flooring, Basement And Main-Level Laundry., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1935

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Total parking for 4 vehicles; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Property condition: actual
• Construction: Frame construction; Partial attic with pull-down stairs; Basement: partial, unfinished with Bilco doors
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Chain link and wood full fencing; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Open, eat-in galley kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil-fired heating; Wall/Window cooling units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Cathedral ceilings; High ceilings; Open kitchen / eat-in kitchen with galley layout; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer included (dryer listed); Laundry located in bathroom; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tangier Smith Elementary School (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #1,181 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 61% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $350k implies a 298% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $319,592 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $460,049
• List price: $349,999
• Delta: -23.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
289 Jefferson	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (-4%)	2mo	$445,000	$439	69
166 Neighborhood Rd	0.18mi	2/1.5	1,176 (+12%)	3mo	$463,500	$394	68
152 Dogwood Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	991 (-6%)	1mo	$525,000	$530	67
181 Cypress Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,200 (+14%)	2mo	$276,000	$230	65
159 Forest Rd E	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,104 (+5%)	2mo	$399,000	$361	62
307 Jefferson Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (-3%)	2mo	$560,000	$547	62
129 Lakeview Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	954 (-9%)	1mo	$515,000	$540	58
237 Cypress Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (-4%)	3mo	$465,000	$461	57
16 Elm Rd E	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (+8%)	4mo	$380,000	$333	49
1 Elm Rd E	0.65mi	2/1.0	921 (-12%)	1mo	$399,000	$433	48
161 Washington Dr	0.42mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	5mo	$440,000	$367	46
8 King Rd W	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,150 (+9%)	7mo	$535,000	$465	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $196,846
• Equity at exit: $315,307

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $574,932
• Equity at exit: $679,971

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$447 /mo · $5,359/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,073

Max offer price $349,999

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $196	+0% $97	+5% $-2	+10% $-101
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $-29	+0% $97	+5% $223	+10% $349
Rate	-1.0pp $273	-0.5pp $186	base $97	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 Washington Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$3,400	$2.95	0d	1	0.40mi
5 Cedar Rd E Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	740	$2,900	$3.92	0d	1	0.47mi
12 Hackensack Rd Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	792	$3,150	$3.98	18d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $349,999 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $349,999 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $349,999 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   listed $349,999 Active 1434-char remark
5. 2026-05-07
   historical $349,999 1434-char remark
6. 2013-10-09
   soldstatus $87,999
7. 2013-09-17
   soldstatus $87,999 Closed 316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Find Comfort And Joy In This Agreeable 2-Bedroom Ranch. You Will Appreciate Features Like These: Spa, Garage And Vaulted Ceilings. The Fully Fenced Yard Offers Opportunity For Special Garden Projects And Play Space. Further Amenities Included In This Haven Are: Patio, Wood Flooring, Basement And Main-Level Laundry.

8. 2013-09-17
   soldstatus $87,999

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Find Comfort And Joy In This Agreeable 2-Bedroom Ranch. You Will Appreciate Features Like These: Spa, Garage And Vaulted Ceilings. The Fully Fenced Yard Offers Opportunity For Special Garden Projects And Play Space. Further Amenities Included In This Haven Are: Patio, Wood Flooring, Basement And Main-Level Laundry.

9. 2013-06-06
   status Under Contract 316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (316 chars)

   Find Comfort And Joy In This Agreeable 2-Bedroom Ranch. You Will Appreciate Features Like These: Spa, Garage And Vaulted Ceilings. The Fully Fenced Yard Offers Opportunity For Special Garden Projects And Play Space. Further Amenities Included In This Haven Are: Patio, Wood Flooring, Basement And Main-Level Laundry.

10. 2013-03-19
    price $89,990 Price Change 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Find Comfort And Joy In This Agreeable 2-Bedroom Ranch. You Will Appreciate Features Like These: Spa, Garage And Vaulted Ceilings. The Fully Fenced Yard Offers Opportunity For Special Garden Projects And Play Space. Further Amenities Included In This Haven Are: Patio, Wood Flooring, Basement And Main-Level Laundry.

11. 2013-01-22
    listed $119,900 New 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Find Comfort And Joy In This Agreeable 2-Bedroom Ranch. You Will Appreciate Features Like These: Spa, Garage And Vaulted Ceilings. The Fully Fenced Yard Offers Opportunity For Special Garden Projects And Play Space. Further Amenities Included In This Haven Are: Patio, Wood Flooring, Basement And Main-Level Laundry.

12. 2013-01-21
    listed $89,990

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Find Comfort And Joy In This Agreeable 2-Bedroom Ranch. You Will Appreciate Features Like These: Spa, Garage And Vaulted Ceilings. The Fully Fenced Yard Offers Opportunity For Special Garden Projects And Play Space. Further Amenities Included In This Haven Are: Patio, Wood Flooring, Basement And Main-Level Laundry., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

13. 2004-02-04
    soldstatus $181,000
14. 2003-08-08
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,359 · $447/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,637 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: +$278/yr (+$23/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,359
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,068
• − Management: −$3,068
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$4,681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,123
• After-tax cash flow: $2,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+133.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $349,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Coming Soon $349,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $87,999 Public Records
• 2013-09-17 Sold (MLS) $87,999 MLSLI
• 2013-09-17 Sold (MLS) $87,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-06 Pending — MLSLI
• 2013-03-19 Price Changed $89,990 MLSLI
• 2013-01-22 Listed $119,900 MLSLI
• 2013-01-21 Listed $89,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $181,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,359 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.