9727 Fawn Frst · San Antonio, TX 78223

$199,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $125/sqft · 11% below area Est $225k · 11% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 21% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 684 students, 75% FRL); East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,575 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,192
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -11.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9727 Fawn Frst	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	1mo	$199,999	$125	99
9719 Fawn Frst	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	1mo	$211,999	$132	98
5626 Azure Aly	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	2mo	$200,999	$126	94
5606 Azure Aly	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	2mo	$209,999	$133	94
9703 Fawn Frst	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	2mo	$231,999	$147	94
5661 Jasper Pl	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	1mo	$225,712	$141	93
5641 Jasper Pl	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	1mo	$226,999	$144	92
5657 Jasper Pl	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	1mo	$220,553	$140	90
9715 Fawn Frst	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-12%)	2mo	$197,999	$140	73
9711 Fawn Frst	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	1mo	$193,999	$138	72
5602 Azure Aly	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	2mo	$192,999	$138	71
5710 Green Mnr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-5%)	1mo	$225,999	$149	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-42,806
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-63,138
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78223

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,666 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,776

Max offer price $187,380

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $-18	+0% $-87	+5% $-156	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-153	+0% $-87	+5% $-21	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $14	-0.5pp $-36	base $-87	+0.5pp $-139	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10519 Green Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1643	$1,900	$1.16	45d	1	0.30mi
10534 Green Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1311	$1,700	$1.30	45d	1	0.32mi
10531 Green Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1849	$1,700	$0.92	45d	1	0.32mi
5107 Moni Rock Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,585	$1.04	25d	1	0.35mi
10332 Green Br San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	25d	1	0.36mi
10319 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,500	$0.98	6d	1	0.39mi
5322 Freshwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,525	$1.00	25d	1	0.41mi
10366 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	12d	1	0.42mi
10418 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	45d	1	0.49mi
10427 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1939	$1,700	$0.88	45d	1	0.51mi
10431 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	45d	1	0.52mi
10454 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,425	$1.15	12d	1	0.54mi
10447 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,500	$1.06	45d	1	0.54mi
10471 Clearwater Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	25d	1	0.58mi
10929 Presa Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1503	$1,450	$0.96	45d	1	0.86mi
11026 Tree Line San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,299	$0.96	45d	1	0.87mi
5727 Coopers Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1127	$2,400	$2.13	23d	1	1.05mi
8563 Redhawk Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,800	$1.01	16d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 607-char remark

   Show marketing remark (607 chars)

   The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-04-28
   price $199,999 607-char remark

   Show marketing remark (607 chars)

   The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-18
   price $212,999 607-char remark

   Show marketing remark (607 chars)

   The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-03-12
   price $232,999 607-char remark

   Show marketing remark (607 chars)

   The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-03-05
   price $231,999 607-char remark

   Show marketing remark (607 chars)

   The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-03-03
   listed $230,999 New 607-char remark

   Show marketing remark (607 chars)

   The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,599
• − Management: −$1,599
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,482
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $29/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a good condition. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $52,088
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2809.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 28% White 16% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.06%
• Current HPI: 265.2235
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $199,999 LERA
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $212,999 LERA
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $232,999 LERA
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $231,999 LERA
• 2026-03-03 Listed $230,999 LERA