7811 Saint Louis St · Houston, TX 77028

$159,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 814 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1950 4,081 sqft lot $195/sqft · 7% above area Est $186k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks

Freshly renovated 3 beds 2 baths! This property offers a bright, open-concept living space with modern updates. Features include NEW ROOF, updated flooring, a refreshed kitchen, and spacious bedrooms with ample natural light. Situated on a fully fenced lot with a private yard, ideal for outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located with quick access to major highways, downtown Houston, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• Private yard
• Updated flooring
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED FLOORING
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• FULLY FENCED LOT
• PRIVATE YARD
• QUICK ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms on the first floor); Pier/pillar foundation
• Construction: Built in 1950; Stucco and wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Lot includes other features

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Tub with shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Kashmere H S (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 725 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.17%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,186
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -15.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7957 Safebuy St	0.55mi	3/1.0	816 (+0%)	8mo	$65,000	$80	68
7957 Ritz St	0.50mi	3/1.0	864 (+6%)	2mo	$120,000	$139	65
7973 Birmingham St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	878 (+8%)	9mo	$100,000	$114	54
7966 Betty Boop St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	862 (+6%)	20mo	$147,800	$171	52
7962 Safebuy St	0.53mi	3/1.0	884 (+9%)	18mo	$198,000	$224	46
7950 Safebuy St	0.52mi	3/1.5	864 (+6%)	23mo	$159,900	$185	45
7819 Sparta St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	750 (-8%)	20mo	$177,500	$237	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.25% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $50,793
• Equity at exit: $92,479

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $129,335
• Equity at exit: $161,606

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77028

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,720 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,316/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,384

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7947 Henson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,349	$1.24	5d	1	0.32mi
8117 Saint Louis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,335	$1.22	21d	1	0.45mi
8119 Saint Louis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,349	$1.24	43d	1	0.46mi
7973 Ritz St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,250	$2.09	7d	1	0.52mi
8015 Elbert St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1021	$1,650	$1.62	7d	1	1.16mi
8309 Carolwood Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	938	$1,350	$1.44	43d	1	1.32mi
7600 E Houston Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,436	$1.41	13d	8	1.32mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 404-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on marketlisting id $159,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-05-01
   listed $157,500 Active 394-char remark
9. 2026-04-29
   historical
10. 2026-03-16
    price $157,500
11. 2026-02-27
    status Active
12. 2026-02-27
    price $159,000
13. 2026-02-18
    historical
14. 2026-02-17
    price $164,000
15. 2026-02-04
    price $169,000
16. 2026-01-03
    listed $175,000 Active
17. 2025-12-02
    soldstatus
18. 2023-01-31
    soldstatus
19. 2008-07-12
    historical
20. 2008-01-12
    listed $89,900
21. 2005-04-06
    soldstatus
22. 1998-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,316 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$594/yr (+$49/mo · 25.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,316
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$167
• After-tax cash flow: $3,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,109
• Household income: $38,357
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1177.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 15% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Current HPI: 267.7798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.55%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+76.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $157,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $157,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $164,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-07-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-01-12 Listed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2005-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,316 · +14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.