1416 Osceola Avenue Ave · Chariton, IA 50049

$49,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,567 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1900

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1.5-story single-family home situated on a spacious corner lot in Chariton offering character, flexible living space, and excellent potential. Built in 1900, this home offers approximately 1,567 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, including a main-level primary bedroom and two upper-level rooms. The large living room provides ample space for gathering and natural light, while the eat-in kitchen features generous cabinet space, open shelving, and room for dining. Main-level laundry adds everyday convenience. Outside, the property features mature landscaping, garden areas, fenced sections of yard space, and a detached garage/outbuilding providing additional storage or wo

Key facts

• Fenced sections
• Main-level laundry
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MAIN-LEVEL LAUNDRY
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• GARDEN AREAS
• FENCED SECTIONS
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached one-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property (residential zoning); Metal roof; Wood siding
• Construction: Wood siding construction

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 4.4% in Chariton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in IA, #1,703 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Chariton Community School District (town): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #241 of 289 in IA (top 83%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Columbus Elementary School (284 students, 58% FRL); Chariton Middle School (math 63% / reading 70%, grade A-, #148 of 246 statewide, top 61%, 285 students, 56% FRL); Chariton High School (math 57% / reading 73%, grade B, #208 of 336 statewide, top 62%, 392 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $49k implies a 277% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.97%
• DSCR: 3.36
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,473
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1219 Braden Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,557 (-1%)	7mo	$175,000	$112	80
1344 Braden Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-4%)	4mo	$170,000	$113	73
1019 Ilion Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+3%)	1mo	$200,000	$124	64
520 N 8th St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,397 (-11%)	0mo	$178,000	$127	51
302 S Grand St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,680 (+7%)	8mo	$20,000	$12	50
1223 Park Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,780 (+14%)	12mo	$190,000	$107	47
1405 Woodlawn Ave	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,728 (+10%)	16mo	$127,000	$73	42
1102 N 17th St	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,391 (-11%)	6mo	$315,000	$226	40
710 N 6th St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+6%)	14mo	$250,000	$150	39
1106 Woodlawn Ave	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,456 (-7%)	15mo	$445,000	$306	38
1219 N 12th St	0.60mi	3/3.0	1,724 (+10%)	12mo	$205,000	$119	37
920 N Grand St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,341 (-14%)	15mo	$142,000	$106	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $30,710
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.59×
• Total profit: $76,714
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50049

• Home prices YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,307 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,792/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $540

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $633	-5% $620	+0% $606	+5% $592	+10% $578
Rent	-10% $502	-5% $554	+0% $606	+5% $657	+10% $709
Rate	-1.0pp $630	-0.5pp $618	base $606	+0.5pp $593	+1.0pp $580

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $49,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $49,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 9 DOM
19. 2026-05-21
    listed $49,000 Active
20. 2026-04-23
    historical
21. 2026-03-23
    price $65,000
22. 2026-02-12
    price $70,000
23. 2026-01-12
    price $75,000
24. 2025-11-25
    listed $80,000 Active
25. 2018-10-26
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,792 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,792 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$1,792
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $6,966
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,672
• After-tax cash flow: $5,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chariton Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1907050
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,415
• Composite: 51.35/100
• National rank: #1738
• State rank: #241 of 289 in IA

Livability — Chariton

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1703

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chariton, IA
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,106 people
• By 2030: 7,755 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 7,007 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 6,265 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 4,926 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 3,792 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.1) · D 25.2% · R 73.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.7pp · 2024: -48.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.1 2020: R+43.3 2016: R+38.1 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+6.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.20%
• Current HPI: 220.0223
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+276.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $49,000 DMMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $65,000 DMMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $70,000 DMMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $75,000 DMMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $80,000 DMMLS
• 2018-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,792 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.