1164 Timberwood Dr · South Lockport, NY 14094

$79,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured · 162 Days on market

Built 1994 Est $96k · 17% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this well-designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence which has 1,848 square feet of comfortable living space. The large kitchen features an abundance of cabinetry, a pantry, and plenty of room to gather. Enjoy meals in the formal dining room, plus an additional eating area just off the kitchen--perfect for casual dining or a cozy family room setup. The spacious living room is warm and inviting with a gas fireplace, ideal for relaxing evenings. The primary suite is a true retreat complete with a walk-in closet and a private bath featuring a walk-in shower, garden tub, and linen closet. Step outside through your glass sliding doors to a great covered front deck, perfect for morning

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• GAS FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount: $855
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Double wide mobile home (Commodore); Resale condition; Metal roof; Vinyl siding; Corner lot; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Metal roof; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch (open); Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Free-standing range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Sliding doors; Breakfast bar and breakfast area; Ceiling fan(s); Cathedral ceilings; Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Pantry; Bath in primary bedroom; Accessible bedroom; Low-threshold shower; No stairs (single-level living); Main level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer (main level laundry)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $622 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 1.5% in South Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.34%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,096
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
701 Gardenwood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-3%)	1mo	$36,200	$20	81
779 Fernwood Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,848 (0%)	8mo	$94,900	$51	81
1186 Vinewood	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-3%)	14mo	$99,500	$56	78
807 Fernwood Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-6%)	5mo	$82,000	$47	73
837 Willowbrook Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,904 (+3%)	6mo	$107,000	$56	67
352 Applewood Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,792 (-3%)	5mo	$96,000	$54	66
1334 Willowbrook Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-9%)	14mo	$88,900	$53	66
344 Applewood Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,876 (+2%)	9mo	$89,900	$48	64
669 Gardenwood Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-9%)	13mo	$70,000	$42	63
457 Jim Kelly	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-3%)	10mo	$93,000	$52	62
853 Birchwood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,653 (-11%)	13mo	$85,000	$51	54
1139 Lockwood Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (-14%)	9mo	$125,000	$79	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $27,701
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.55×
• Total profit: $79,445
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $79,999

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $678	-5% $650	+0% $622	+5% $595	+10% $567
Rent	-10% $505	-5% $564	+0% $622	+5% $681	+10% $740
Rate	-1.0pp $663	-0.5pp $643	base $622	+0.5pp $602	+1.0pp $580

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,999 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,999 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,999 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,999 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,999 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,999 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,999 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,999 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,999 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,999 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,999 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,999 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,999 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,999 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,999 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $79,999
17. 2026-02-23
    price $85,900
18. 2026-01-07
    listed $94,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,428
• − Management: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $6,586
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,581
• After-tax cash flow: $5,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Lockport

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #11642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $79,999 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $85,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $94,900 WNYREIS