15 Gravel Pl · Lackawanna, NY 14218

$89,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1865 3,150 sqft lot $49/sqft · 64% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Exceptional Investment Opportunity: Ideal for Investors or Owner-Occupied Buyers. Embrace this outstanding chance to acquire a property primed for renovation and updates. The property features a partially finished attic with drywall and electrical provisions, awaiting your creative touch to maximize its utility. Enjoy the convenience of a partially fenced yard, perfect for creating a serene outdoor retreat. Both units are currently vacant and need renovation. This remarkable deal is offered as-is, presenting a blank canvas for your vision and investment goals. Don't miss out on this opportunity to shape a property into a lucrative venture or a cherished home.

Key facts

• Double lot
• 3,150 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• PARTIALLY FINISHED ATTIC
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Two separate gas meters and two separate electric meters indicate individual utility metering for each unit
• Financial info: Operating expenses: see remarks; Owner pays: other (see remarks); Rent includes: see remarks; Multifamily property with 2 total units

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking available; no driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story property; Existing resale property; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Flag lot; Residential lot; 30 x 105 lot dimensions; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen features not specified (see remarks)
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Varies by area/unit
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total (one full bathroom in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Heating details not specified (see remarks)
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Varied and vinyl flooring; Formal dining room in one unit; Living room in one unit; Other interior features (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Separate gas meters for each unit; Separate electric meters for each unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.0% vs local median 5.4% in Lackawanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Lackawanna City School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #588 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1865 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1865 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.52%
• DSCR: 3.65
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,189
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -63.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Fig Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,960 (+8%)	2mo	$115,000	$59	75
1685 Electric Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (-10%)	17mo	$150,000	$91	37
20 Modern Ave	0.57mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,072 (+14%)	12mo	$145,000	$70	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $64,346
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.32×
• Total profit: $157,570
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14218

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,428/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $1,236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $788

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,286	-5% $1,261	+0% $1,236	+5% $1,211	+10% $1,186
Rent	-10% $1,050	-5% $1,143	+0% $1,236	+5% $1,329	+10% $1,422
Rate	-1.0pp $1,281	-0.5pp $1,259	base $1,236	+0.5pp $1,213	+1.0pp $1,190

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,354
Total (2 units)			$2,353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $89,000 Active 667-char remark
17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-10-22
    price $111,000
19. 2025-06-13
    listed $129,727 Active
20. 2025-05-31
    historical
21. 2025-03-21
    price $129,000
22. 2025-03-18
    status Active
23. 2024-11-04
    price $107,000
24. 2024-07-24
    listed $115,000 Active
25. 2024-01-31
    historical
26. 2023-11-12
    price $109,000
27. 2023-11-12
    status Active
28. 2023-09-25
    historical
29. 2023-08-25
    listed $125,000 Active
30. 2023-07-30
    historical
31. 2023-05-03
    listed $115,000 Active
32. 2023-03-10
    soldstatus $73,000
33. 2023-01-13
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
34. 2023-01-09
    historical
35. 2022-12-21
    price $79,900
36. 2022-12-13
    listed $85,000 Active
37. 2022-12-09
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,428 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,466 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$38/yr (+$3/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,428
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,259
• − Management: −$2,259
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $14,271
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,425
• After-tax cash flow: $11,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lackawanna City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616440
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,041
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #8708
• State rank: #588 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lackawanna, NY
• City population: 20,661
• Population (ZIP): 20,661

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.44%
• Current HPI: 389.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+89.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $89,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $111,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $129,727 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $129,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-18 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2024-11-04 Price Changed $107,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-07-24 Listed $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-01-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-11-12 Price Changed $109,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-11-12 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2023-09-25 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-08-25 Listed $125,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-07-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-05-03 Listed $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-01-09 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2022-12-21 Price Changed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-12-13 Listed $85,000 WNYREIS
• 2022-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,428 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.