207 Arnaudville Rd · Carencro, LA 70520

$54,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2013 0.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity to own this mobile home built in 2013 featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. ***SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. ***

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2013

🔨 Auction listing. The $54,900 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $184,638 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.3% in Carencro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#65 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime D.
• Lafayette Parish (urban): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #19 of 98 in LA (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 280 active listings in the ZIP; 1,585 units permitted in Lafayette Parish in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,253 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.89%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,638
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -70.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-46,217
• Equity at exit: $27,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-60,690
• Equity at exit: $15,964

Cash invested: $51,699 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70520

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,638 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$968
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $973/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $138,895

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,159
• Closing costs: $5,539
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $54,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $54,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $54,900 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,900 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $54,900 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $54,900 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Great Opportunity to own this mobile home built in 2013 featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * *

18. 2026-05-01
    price $54,900 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Great Opportunity to own this mobile home built in 2013 featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * *

19. 2026-04-21
    listed $93,600 Active 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Great Opportunity to own this mobile home built in 2013 featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * *

20. 2026-04-21
    listed $93,600 Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Great Opportunity to own this mobile home built in 2013 featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * *

21. 2022-06-03
    soldstatus $116,900
22. 2022-05-26
    soldstatus $116,900 Sold
23. 2022-04-15
    status Pending
24. 2022-04-07
    price $116,900
25. 2022-02-15
    price $129,000
26. 2022-01-05
    listed $142,500 Active
27. 2013-07-16
    soldstatus $19,000
28. 2013-02-26
    listed $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $973 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $973 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,343
• − Property taxes: −$973
• − Insurance: −$6,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,572
• − Management: −$1,572
• − Depreciation: −$5,371
• Taxable loss: −$6,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,493
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lafayette Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200870
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -24.00%
• Median HH income: $50,238
• Composite: 36.15/100
• National rank: #4741
• State rank: #19 of 98 in LA

Livability — Carencro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #8277

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 20,134
• Population (ZIP): 20,134

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 280,930 people
• By 2030: 301,092 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 339,456 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 375,156 · +33.5%
• By 2075: 451,672 · +60.8%
• By 2100: 497,203 · +77.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 32% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.5% · R 64.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.1pp no change · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.62%
• Current HPI: 157.0194
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+188.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $54,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $54,900 GSREIN
• 2026-04-21 Listed $93,600 GSREIN
• 2026-04-21 Listed $93,600 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $116,900 Public Records
• 2022-05-26 Sold (MLS) $116,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-04-15 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2022-04-07 Price Changed $116,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-02-15 Price Changed $129,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-01-05 Listed $142,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2013-07-16 Sold (MLS) $19,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2013-02-26 Listed $19,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $973 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.