4420 Pleasant Valley Rd #161 · Diamond Springs, CA 95619

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 5,204 sqft · Manufactured public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1986

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming, move in ready home in the highly sought after Lake Oaks 55+ community. This well designed 3 bedroom, 2 bath residence offers a comfortable layout with great natural flow throughout. The primary suite features a beautifully updated, handicap accessible shower for ease and convenience. Outside, the covered carport provides a storage shed perfectly positioned for hobbies or extra space. A lift is also available under the carport ideal for accessibility needs or simply making grocery and heavy item trips effortless. Lake Oaks residents enjoy wonderful amenities including a serene lake, refreshing pool, scenic walking trails, and a lively clubhouse filled with activitie

Key facts

• Refreshing pool
• Covered carport
• Lift under carport

Tags

• HANDICAP ACCESSIBLE SHOWER
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• LIFT UNDER CARPORT
• REFRESHING POOL
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount listed separately
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: no

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in-park double wide; Built in 1986; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Shingle roof; Wood skirting; Bayshore manufactured home
• Exterior features: Garden

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms including a master bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathroom with tub and shower over; Separate shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Skylight(s) in kitchen; Formal dining area; Great room living area; Updated/remodeled interior; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; size and number limits apply)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; 220-volt outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $432 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.3% in Diamond Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,239 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Mother Lode Union Elementary (rural): math 36% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #726 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.80%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,066
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $32,910
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95619

• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $432

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $563	-5% $498	+0% $432	+5% $367	+10% $302
Rent	-10% $258	-5% $345	+0% $432	+5% $519	+10% $606
Rate	-1.0pp $527	-0.5pp $480	base $432	+0.5pp $383	+1.0pp $333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $189,000 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 173 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 165 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 164 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 158 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 157 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 156 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $2,315
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$556
• After-tax cash flow: $4,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mother Lode Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0625980
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,429
• Composite: 36.63/100
• National rank: #9251
• State rank: #726 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Diamond Springs

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1239
• US rank: #26264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Diamond Springs, CA
• City population: 6,362
• Population (ZIP): 6,362

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Slovak 4% Russian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Korean 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.93%
• Current HPI: 248.9804
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $348 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.