16510 SE 81st Ave · Johnson City, OR 97267

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Other · 111 Days on market

Built 1980 $100/sqft · 6% above area Est $132k · 6% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into a spacious family room bathed in natural light, thanks to an abundance of large windows that create a bright and airy atmosphere. Whether you’re hosting guests or enjoying a quiet evening, this room offers comfort and versatility. Fall in love with this beautifully updated home, starting with the show-stopping kitchen—quartz countertops, stylish backsplash, brand-new stainless-steel appliances, and soft-close cabinets and drawers. An island with extra storage and a breakfast bar makes it perfect for casual meals or entertaining. The dining room sits just off the kitchen for effortless gatherings. The primary suite offers a spacious walk-in closet, new flooring, and updated lighting. Its private bath features a new vanity, full-size walk-in shower, fresh flooring, and modern hardware. A guest bedroom is tucked into a split floor plan next to the updated guest bath with tub/shower combo, new vanity, toilet, and hardware. Convenience continues with a utility room featuring a storage closet and washer. Recent upgrades include a new roof, exterior paint, decks, and steps. Situated on a generous corner lot, the home provides extra outdoor space to enjoy. Community amenities add to the appeal: a peaceful lake, picnic areas, and RV storage. Ideally located near I-205, schools, and more, the park’s space rent is just $970 per month, covering garbage and sewer.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Quartz countertops
• Dining room

Tags

• LARGE WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#25 in OR, #623 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F.
• North Clackamas SD 12 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #22 of 58 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 170 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.46%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,611
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: 6.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $37,611
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $96,856
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97267

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,351 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $466/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $1,027

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,052

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16751 SE 82nd Dr Clackamas, OR	2.0	1.0–1.5	712	$1,795	$2.52	22d	8	0.49mi
16500 SE 82nd Dr Clackamas, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$2,273	$2.26	7d	4	0.58mi
18181 Webster Rd Gladstone, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	771	$2,395	$3.10	7d	11	0.94mi
17112 SE Jade Ct Portland, OR	3.0	2.0	1514	$3,400	$2.25	1d	1	1.06mi
6593 SE Thiessen Rd Portland, OR	4.0	2.0	1791	$3,100	$1.73	1d	1	1.16mi
8106 SE Lake Rd Portland, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	708	$1,622	$2.29	3d	15	1.18mi
5832 Glen Echo Ave Unit 5830 Gladstone, OR	3.0	2.5	1340	$2,195	$1.64	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $139,900 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-04-27
    price $139,900 1406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1406 chars)

    Step into a spacious family room bathed in natural light, thanks to an abundance of large windows that create a bright and airy atmosphere. Whether you’re hosting guests or enjoying a quiet evening, this room offers comfort and versatility. Fall in love with this beautifully updated home, starting with the show-stopping kitchen—quartz countertops, stylish backsplash, brand-new stainless-steel appliances, and soft-close cabinets and drawers. An island with extra storage and a breakfast bar makes it perfect for casual meals or entertaining. The dining room sits just off the kitchen for effortless gatherings. The primary suite offers a spacious walk-in closet, new flooring, and updated lighting. Its private bath features a new vanity, full-size walk-in shower, fresh flooring, and modern hardware. A guest bedroom is tucked into a split floor plan next to the updated guest bath with tub/shower combo, new vanity, toilet, and hardware. Convenience continues with a utility room featuring a storage closet and washer. Recent upgrades include a new roof, exterior paint, decks, and steps. Situated on a generous corner lot, the home provides extra outdoor space to enjoy. Community amenities add to the appeal: a peaceful lake, picnic areas, and RV storage. Ideally located near I-205, schools, and more, the park’s space rent is just $970 per month, covering garbage and sewer.

15. 2026-02-27
    listed $144,900 Active 1406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1406 chars)

    Step into a spacious family room bathed in natural light, thanks to an abundance of large windows that create a bright and airy atmosphere. Whether you’re hosting guests or enjoying a quiet evening, this room offers comfort and versatility. Fall in love with this beautifully updated home, starting with the show-stopping kitchen—quartz countertops, stylish backsplash, brand-new stainless-steel appliances, and soft-close cabinets and drawers. An island with extra storage and a breakfast bar makes it perfect for casual meals or entertaining. The dining room sits just off the kitchen for effortless gatherings. The primary suite offers a spacious walk-in closet, new flooring, and updated lighting. Its private bath features a new vanity, full-size walk-in shower, fresh flooring, and modern hardware. A guest bedroom is tucked into a split floor plan next to the updated guest bath with tub/shower combo, new vanity, toilet, and hardware. Convenience continues with a utility room featuring a storage closet and washer. Recent upgrades include a new roof, exterior paint, decks, and steps. Situated on a generous corner lot, the home provides extra outdoor space to enjoy. Community amenities add to the appeal: a peaceful lake, picnic areas, and RV storage. Ideally located near I-205, schools, and more, the park’s space rent is just $970 per month, covering garbage and sewer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $466 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$892/yr (+$74/mo · 191.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$466
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,257
• − Management: −$2,257
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $10,630
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,551
• After-tax cash flow: $9,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Clackamas SD 12
• NCES district ID: 4108830
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $60,217
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5807
• State rank: #22 of 58 in OR

Livability — Johnson City

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #623

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson City, OR
• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,311
• Household income: $87,418
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1226.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -526.38%
• Current HPI: 292.1818
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.81%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $139,900 RMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $144,900 RMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $466 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.