2319 W 4th St · Thorntonville, TX 79756

$99,200

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,931 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 2015 0.45 ac lot $51/sqft · at area comps Est $107k · 7% under ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A flexible layout and generous lot highlight this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with covered parking via a carport. Interior spaces offer defined living areas with an open flow suitable for everyday use and future updates. The property reflects original features, allowing customization over time. The large lot supports outdoor use or additional improvements. Located near Hill Park, Monahans Sandhills State Park, and services along Sealy Avenue, with access to Permian Basin employers and regional routes. To make an offer or for more information, visit MyNextBid.com

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Covered parking
• Flexible layout

Tags

• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• GENEROUS LOT
• COVERED PARKING
• DEFINED LIVING AREAS
• ORIGINAL FEATURES
• LARGE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $688 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,073 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Monahans-Wickett-Pyote ISD (town): math 33% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Ward County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $686 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ward County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,296 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.74%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,846
• List price: $99,200
• Delta: -7.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $27,894
• Equity at exit: $14,791

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $81,233
• Equity at exit: $8,577

Cash invested: $27,776 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79756

• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$520
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,227/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,051

Max offer price $99,200

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,800
• Closing costs: $2,976
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,200 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,200 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,200 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,200 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,200 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,200 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,200 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,200 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,200 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,200 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $99,200 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,400 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,400 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,400 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,400 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    price $105,400 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    A flexible layout and generous lot highlight this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with covered parking via a carport. Interior spaces offer defined living areas with an open flow suitable for everyday use and future updates. The property reflects original features, allowing customization over time. The large lot supports outdoor use or additional improvements. Located near Hill Park, Monahans Sandhills State Park, and services along Sealy Avenue, with access to Permian Basin employers and regional routes. To make an offer or for more information, visit MyNextBid.com

17. 2026-04-06
    price $111,600 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    A flexible layout and generous lot highlight this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with covered parking via a carport. Interior spaces offer defined living areas with an open flow suitable for everyday use and future updates. The property reflects original features, allowing customization over time. The large lot supports outdoor use or additional improvements. Located near Hill Park, Monahans Sandhills State Park, and services along Sealy Avenue, with access to Permian Basin employers and regional routes. To make an offer or for more information, visit MyNextBid.com

18. 2026-03-04
    price $117,800 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    A flexible layout and generous lot highlight this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with covered parking via a carport. Interior spaces offer defined living areas with an open flow suitable for everyday use and future updates. The property reflects original features, allowing customization over time. The large lot supports outdoor use or additional improvements. Located near Hill Park, Monahans Sandhills State Park, and services along Sealy Avenue, with access to Permian Basin employers and regional routes. To make an offer or for more information, visit MyNextBid.com

19. 2026-02-02
    listed $124,000 Active 563-char remark

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    A flexible layout and generous lot highlight this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home with covered parking via a carport. Interior spaces offer defined living areas with an open flow suitable for everyday use and future updates. The property reflects original features, allowing customization over time. The large lot supports outdoor use or additional improvements. Located near Hill Park, Monahans Sandhills State Park, and services along Sealy Avenue, with access to Permian Basin employers and regional routes. To make an offer or for more information, visit MyNextBid.com

20. 2022-09-12
    price $150,000
21. 2022-08-05
    price $164,900
22. 2022-06-08
    price $199,000
23. 2022-05-07
    listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,227 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,227 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate 14% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,557
• − Property taxes: −$3,227
• − Insurance: −$496
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − Depreciation: −$2,886
• Taxable income: $7,216
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,732
• After-tax cash flow: $6,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monahans-Wickett-Pyote ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,117
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6592
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Thorntonville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1073
• US rank: #19032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thorntonville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,558

Population outlook (Ward County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,048 people
• By 2030: 15,329 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 18,112 · +28.9%
• By 2050: 21,301 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 29,199 · +107.9%
• By 2100: 33,968 · +141.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 39% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ward

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.1) · D 16.7% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.1pp · 2024: -66.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.1 2020: R+61.0 2016: R+51.6 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+49.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.06%
• Current HPI: 194.6219
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-51.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $105,400 PBBOR
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $111,600 PBBOR
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $117,800 PBBOR
• 2026-02-02 Listed $124,000 PBBOR
• 2022-09-12 Price Changed $150,000 ODMLS
• 2022-08-05 Price Changed $164,900 ODMLS
• 2022-06-08 Price Changed $199,000 ODMLS
• 2022-05-07 Listed $215,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,227 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.