505 Long Hill Rd · Gillette, NJ 07933

$450,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,721 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1955

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity Knocks in Gillette! This mid century split level is a true "time capsule" ready for its next chapter. Situated on . 78 acre wooded lot offering 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, attached garage, deck, and screened porch, this home offers great bones and endless potential. This is an ideal project for an investor, contractor or a visionary buyer wanting to curate their perfect sanctuary. Sold strictly AS-IS; significant deferred maintenance throughout. Underground oil tank on site. Buyer responsible for all permits, approvals & zoning verification for any renovation or change of use. Property condition warrants caution - touring at visitor's own risk; signed hold-harmless

Key facts

• Built 1955

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home; Single-story
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,721

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($913/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $403k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $403k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Watchung Hills Regional High School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #57 of 472 in NJ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Millington Elementary School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #406 of 1,303 statewide, top 32%, 352 students, 5% FRL); Central Middle School (math 34% / reading 68%, grade C, #94 of 431 statewide, top 23%, 279 students, 8% FRL); Watchung Hills Regional High School (math 45% / reading 63%, grade C-, #83 of 399 statewide, top 22%, 1,741 students, 3% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,357 units permitted in Morris County in 2024 (1,496 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morris County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $403,286 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-68,011
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-52,734
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07933

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,033 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$562 /mo · $6,750/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$847
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,937

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $387	-5% $232	+0% $76	+5% $-79	+10% $-235
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-83	+0% $76	+5% $235	+10% $395
Rate	-1.0pp $303	-0.5pp $191	base $76	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
663 Springfield Ave Berkeley Heights, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$3,600	$3.34	0d	3	0.90mi
434 Springfield Ave Berkeley Heights, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$5,124	$4.73	0d	82	1.28mi
450 Springfield Ave Unit 301 Berkeley Heights, NJ	2.0	2.0	1422	$3,950	$2.78	17d	1	1.30mi
450 Springfield Ave Unit 203 Berkeley Heights, NJ	2.0	2.0	1504	$4,250	$2.83	17d	1	1.30mi
239 Sherman Ave Berkeley Heights, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	884	$3,150	$3.56	14d	3	1.38mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $450,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market Coming Soon 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 685-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$6,750
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,872
• − Management: −$3,872
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$6,647
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,595
• After-tax cash flow: $2,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watchung Hills Regional High School District
• NCES district ID: 3417220
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $142,921
• Composite: 54.91/100
• National rank: #1311
• State rank: #57 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Gillette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gillette, NJ
• City population: 2,920
• Population (ZIP): 2,920

Population outlook (Morris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 516,747 people
• By 2030: 524,603 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 539,582 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 548,986 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 571,326 · +10.6%
• By 2100: 561,122 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Subsaharan African 3% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Morris

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.4% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -2.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.7 2020: D+4.2 2016: R+4.4 2012: R+11.6 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.18%
• Current HPI: 243.2579
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B