1 April Vlg · Conroe, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 110°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 24 days/yr
Wind risk 8/10 · Major
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +19.8/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +6.6/10.0
- DSCR +6.3/10.0
- Schools +5.4/10.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Rent growth +1.7/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$175,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Nestled in the gated community of April Sound, this charming 3-bed, 2-bath home boasts an open floor plan with soaring ceilings and beautiful finishes. The property offers 1478 sq ft of living space, built in 1978 on a 3999 sq ft lot. Enjoy the inviting ambiance and quality flooring throughout this sought-after residence at 1 April Village.
Key facts
- $91 HOA
- Community pool
- Built 1978
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Full ownership
- HOA & community: April Sound POA; Quarterly association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, sport court, tennis courts, playground, pool, golf, security/guard, and trash service; Association fee covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities
Exterior
- Parking: No on-site parking
- Security: Gated community with attendant
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
- Home design: Residential property; North-facing; Built in 1978; Single-level entry (slab foundation)
- Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
- Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Association pool
Interior
- Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave
- Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
- Flooring: Tile flooring
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
- Interior features: High ceilings; Tile counters
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $175k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
- Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
- Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $69k; list at $175k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.16% ✓
- Cap rate
- 7.72%
- Cash-on-cash
- 5.11%
- DSCR
- 1.23
- GRM
- 7.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $260,128
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 April Vlg | 0.01mi | 3/2.0 | 1,478 (0%) | 8mo | $199,900 | $135 | 93 |
| 5 April Point Dr S | 0.16mi | 3/2.0 | 1,516 (+3%) | 1mo | $391,500 | $258 | 87 |
| 33 April Point North Dr | 0.35mi | 3/2.0 | 1,502 (+2%) | 2mo | $230,000 | $153 | 80 |
| 10 April Point Dr S #10 | 0.25mi | 3/2.0 | 1,516 (+3%) | 11mo | $295,000 | $195 | 75 |
| 52 April Hill Dr | 0.20mi | 2/2.5 (-1) | 1,408 (-5%) | 8mo | $248,000 | $176 | 69 |
| 55 April Hl | 0.21mi | 2/1.5 (-1) | 1,408 (-5%) | 8mo | $226,000 | $161 | 68 |
| 17 April Point Dr N | 0.43mi | 3/2.0 | 1,370 (-7%) | 6mo | $230,000 | $168 | 62 |
| 116 April Point Dr N | 0.31mi | 3/3.0 | 1,624 (+10%) | 3mo | $222,000 | $137 | 62 |
| 75 April Point Dr S | 0.39mi | 3/2.5 | 1,648 (+12%) | 2mo | $399,900 | $243 | 59 |
| 58 April Point Dr S | 0.29mi | 3/2.5 | 1,648 (+12%) | 9mo | $415,000 | $252 | 58 |
| 57 April Point Dr S | 0.28mi | 3/2.5 | 1,648 (+12%) | 12mo | $425,000 | $258 | 56 |
| 116 Capetown | 0.43mi | 3/2.5 | 1,672 (+13%) | 9mo | $279,900 | $167 | 49 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -12.2%
- Equity multiple
- 0.57×
- Total profit
- $-20,868
- Equity at exit
- $26,093
- IRR
- -9.1%
- Equity multiple
- 0.52×
- Total profit
- $-23,420
- Equity at exit
- $15,131
Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 77356
- Home prices YoY
- -30.3%
- Rents YoY
- -3.3%
- Active inventory
- 1056
- Price-to-rent
- 7.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,024 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$918
- Tax from tax record
- −$309 /mo · $3,707/yr
- Insurance
- −$73
- HOA
- −$91
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$425
- Net cashflow
- $209
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $308 | -5% $258 | +0% $209 | +5% $159 | +10% $109 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $49 | -5% $129 | +0% $209 | +5% $288 | +10% $368 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $297 | -0.5pp $253 | base $209 | +0.5pp $163 | +1.0pp $117 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $43,750
- Closing costs
- $5,250
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 15 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1218 | $1,650 | $1.35 | 44d | 1 | 0.05mi |
| 135 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1624 | $1,900 | $1.17 | 44d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1680 | $2,250 | $1.34 | 44d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 124 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1624 | $2,900 | $1.79 | 44d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 124 April Point Dr S #124 Montgomery, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1300 | $1,490 | $1.15 | 21d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1100 | $1,400 | $1.27 | 44d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1200 | $1,200 | $1.00 | 44d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 16913 Glenheath Montgomery, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1700 | $1,571 | $0.92 | 44d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 116 Lake View Cir Montgomery, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1751 | $2,250 | $1.28 | 44d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $1,450 | $1.32 | 44d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1012 | $1,350 | $1.33 | 13d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1530 | $2,900 | $1.90 | 44d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1052 | $1,845 | $1.75 | 25d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1773 | $2,820 | $1.59 | 44d | 1 | 1.28mi |
| 702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1820 | $4,000 | $2.20 | 44d | 1 | 1.41mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $91 · $1,092/yr
- Likely covers
- security
Listing history 19 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $175,000 Pending 26 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $175,000 Pending 25 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $175,000 Pending 24 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $175,000 Pending 23 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $175,000 Pending 21 DOM
-
2026-06-13statusdays on market $175,000 Pending 20 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $175,000 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-06-07pricedays on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $189,000 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $189,000 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $189,000 Active 10 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $189,000 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $189,000 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-05-23$189,000 Active
-
2011-09-28soldstatus
-
2008-10-26historical
-
2008-08-12$114,000
-
1997-06-17soldstatus $69,426
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $3,707 · $309/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,707 · $309/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $24,290
- − Mortgage interest
- −$9,803
- − Property taxes
- −$3,707
- − Insurance
- −$875
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,943
- − Management
- −$1,943
- − HOA
- −$1,092
- − Depreciation
- −$5,091
- Taxable loss
- −$164
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$39
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,542/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Montgomery ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4831260
- Math proficiency
- 63% ▼ -3.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 57% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $75,596
- Composite
- 53.55/100
- National rank
- #1445
- State rank
- #49 of 826 in TX
Livability — Conroe
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #169
- US rank
- #4447
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Conroe, TX
- County
- Montgomery County · 663,713 people
- City population
- 205,417
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 32,583
- Household income
- $106,804
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 414.0
Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 713,896 people
- By 2030
- 805,263 · +12.8%
- By 2040
- 992,708 · +39.1%
- By 2050
- 1,179,590 · +65.2%
- By 2075
- 1,628,084 · +128.1%
- By 2100
- 1,937,880 · +171.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (87%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 96% English-only · Spanish 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -101.28%
- Current HPI
- 233.0032
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -3.30%
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
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| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
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| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
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| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
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| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
+172.2% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-23 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
- 2011-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
- 2008-10-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2008-08-12 Listed $114,000 HARMLS
- 1997-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $69,426 Public Records
Property tax history
+3.1%/yrLatest (2025): $3,707 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…