14630 N Hollyhock Ave Trlr 1 · Gardendale, TX 79758

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 51 Days on market

Built 2014 Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide mobile home offering a spacious and comfortable layout. This home features recently replaced carpeting and a bright, well-designed kitchen with ample space for cooking and entertaining. The interior is clean, thoughtfully maintained, providing a welcoming atmosphere throughout. Generous living area make this home feel open and functional, ideal for a variety of lifestyles. The lot is leased at Gardendale Meadows, you will need to qualify for the lease or move the mobile home.

Key facts

• Generous living area
• Welcoming atmosphere
• Built 2014

Tags

• RECENTLY REPLACED CARPETING
• BRIGHT WELL-DESIGNED KITCHEN
• GENEROUS LIVING AREA
• WELCOMING ATMOSPHERE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Security system; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (single family); 1 story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Located in Gardendale Meadows mobile home park

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Central air; Central heating; Security system; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $936 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#562 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lee Buice El (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 843 students, 54% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.67%
• DSCR: 3.70
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $47,599
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.65×
• Total profit: $118,686
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79758

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $936

Break-even live

Break-even rent $815

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14991 N Aster Ave Gardendale, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	43d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $80,000 Active 526-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$1,877
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $10,775
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,586
• After-tax cash flow: $8,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide mobile home is in good condition with recent updates. It offers a spacious and comfortable layout, ideal for a variety of lifestyles. The home is located in a leased lot at Gardendale Meadows.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpeting — Fresh carpeting can improve comfort and value
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpeting — Fresh carpeting can improve comfort and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gardendale

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #562
• US rank: #10774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gardendale, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,568

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% German 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.41%
• Current HPI: 219.4945
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $75,000 PBBOR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $80,000 PBBOR