1815 Teal Run Place Dr · Fresno, TX 77545

$199,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,692 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2002 10,532 sqft lot $74/sqft · 28% below area Est $277k · 28% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on a tranquil cul-de-sac, this home boasts a spacious backyard ideal for relaxation and gatherings. Positioned on a generous lot with no front-facing neighbors, it offers ultimate privacy. Directly opposite the community pool, convenience is at your doorstep. A move-in-ready gem in a sought-after locale, seize this opportunity now!

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Spacious backyard
• Community pool

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• GENEROUS LOT
• NO FRONT-FACING NEIGHBORS
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure provided
• HOA & community: Member of Teal Run North HOA; Annual association fee of $550

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Built in 2002
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision; Lot approximately 10,533 sq ft

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 14); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (12 x 12; 12 x 10; 12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Two fireplaces; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.4% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Hightower H S (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 2,535 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 35% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,950

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.22%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,833
• List price: $199,950
• Delta: -27.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1815 Teal Run Place Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,692 (0%)	1mo	$199,950	$74	98
1806 Coretta Ct	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,680 (-0%)	5mo	$264,999	$99	85
3931 Oak Plank Rd	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,680 (-0%)	2mo	$279,900	$104	75
1907 N Thunderwood Cir	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,594 (-4%)	6mo	$289,900	$112	72
3947 Oak Plank Rd	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,600 (-3%)	3mo	$289,990	$112	70
2422 Teal Run Place Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,627 (-2%)	4mo	$290,000	$110	62
1803 Shadow Haven Ct	0.16mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,046 (+13%)	1mo	$230,000	$76	59
2730 Driftwood Bend Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,725 (+1%)	6mo	$365,000	$134	56
1410 Noble Glen Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,912 (+8%)	2mo	$320,000	$110	51
4023 Ashview Ln	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,359 (-12%)	4mo	$290,600	$123	50
2727 Driftwood Bend Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,314 (-14%)	0mo	$325,000	$140	42
1706 Teal Bend Ct	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,348 (-13%)	5mo	$289,000	$123	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,786
• Equity at exit: $39,012

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,046
• Equity at exit: $33,509

Cash invested: $55,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,644 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$574 /mo · $6,894/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,218

Max offer price $199,950

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $450	-5% $393	+0% $337	+5% $280	+10% $224
Rent	-10% $128	-5% $232	+0% $337	+5% $441	+10% $546
Rate	-1.0pp $437	-0.5pp $388	base $337	+0.5pp $285	+1.0pp $232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,988
• Closing costs: $5,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3932 Teal Run Place Ct Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	1914	$2,150	$1.12	44d	1	0.24mi
3806 Teal Maple Ct Fresno, TX	4.0	3.5	2318	$2,146	$0.93	3d	1	0.51mi
3526 Cambridge Falls Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	3.0	3136	$2,624	$0.84	21d	1	0.69mi
2123 Witham Park Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	4.0	3026	$2,850	$0.94	44d	1	0.73mi
2703 Facet Creek Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	2099	$2,306	$1.10	6d	1	0.87mi
2644 Blue Abbot Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	2435	$2,450	$1.01	44d	1	0.99mi
4931 Natchez Trce Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,350	$1.28	44d	1	1.04mi
1402 Windom Court Way Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	1831	$2,300	$1.26	44d	1	1.18mi
4619 Monarch Blue Ln Fresno, TX	3.0	2.5	1933	$1,846	$0.95	44d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 341-char remark
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $199,950 Active 341-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,894 · $574/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,894 · $574/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,200
• − Property taxes: −$6,894
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,539
• − Management: −$2,539
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$5,817
• Taxable income: $1,194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$287
• After-tax cash flow: $3,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $199,950 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,894 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.