437 Skyline Dr E · Crystal Lake, FL 33801

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · Manufactured public records · 207 Days on market

Built 1985 6,390 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath in move in ready condition.

Key facts

• Own the land
• Central a/c updated
• No hoa

Tags

• SINGLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• OWN THE LAND
• NO HOA
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN
• FRONT SCREENED-IN PORCH
• CENTRAL A/C UPDATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.15 acres; Total living area about 1,012 (public records)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway parking; Off-street parking; Tandem parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; High-speed internet available; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces east; Fixer condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Screened porch; Covered patio/porch; Rain gutters; Shed on property; Level lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Living and dining area
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry room; Outdoor laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $556 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#620 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Combee Academy of Design And Engineering (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,471 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 551 students, 60% FRL); Crystal Lake Middle School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #497 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 949 students, 71% FRL); Tenoroc High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,127 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $100k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.82%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $16,097
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $47,397
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,633 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,020/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $930

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $612	-5% $584	+0% $556	+5% $527	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $427	-5% $491	+0% $556	+5% $620	+10% $685
Rate	-1.0pp $606	-0.5pp $581	base $556	+0.5pp $530	+1.0pp $503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
521 Skyline Dr E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,300	$1.83	5d	1	0.15mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	25d	1	0.49mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	16d	1	0.49mi
1323 Tom Watson Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	25d	1	0.92mi
2929 Nine Iron Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	5d	1	1.10mi
1505 Goodyear Ave Unit 17 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$950	$1.20	25d	1	1.21mi
2839 8 Iron Dr Unit 2841 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,397	$1.55	25d	1	1.22mi
2830 Skyview Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,175	$1.38	25d	1	1.23mi
1803 Venus St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,645	$1.31	5d	1	1.45mi
635 Meridian Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,750	$1.45	5d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   statusdays on market $100,000 Pending 207 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 201 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 198 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 192 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 190 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 188 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    status Active
16. 2026-04-21
    status Pending
17. 2026-02-23
    price $100,000
18. 2025-12-16
    price $109,000
19. 2025-11-21
    listed $115,000 Active
20. 2012-03-28
    soldstatus $39,000 49-char remark

    Show marketing remark (49 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath in move in ready condition.

21. 2012-01-04
    listed $45,000 49-char remark

    Show marketing remark (49 chars)

    Nice 2 bedroom 2 bath in move in ready condition.

22. 2010-04-14
    listed $54,000
23. 1994-08-15
    soldstatus $45,500
24. 1993-12-03
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,020 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,020 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,020
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,568
• − Management: −$1,568
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $5,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,303
• After-tax cash flow: $5,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #620
• US rank: #12023

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,460
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+122.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-28 Sold (MLS) $39,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-04 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-14 Listed $54,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records
• 1993-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,020 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.