Azure Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34240

$10,570

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,443 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Azure: A Haven of Spacious Living Experience the epitome of refined living in the Azure, a stunning two-story residence boasting 4,443 square feet of thoughtfully designed space. This impressive home features 5 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, a 3-car garage, and an array of luxurious amenities that will elevate your everyday life. The main level welcomes you with an expansive great room, perfect for entertaining guests or simply relaxing with family. Adjacent to the great room, you'll find a formal dining area ideal for hosting memorable gatherings. A well-appointed kitchen, complete with a spacious island and a walk-in pantry, is a chef's dream. For added versatility, the Azure includes a dedic

Key facts

• Dedicated den
• Convenient mudroom
• Formal dining area

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• DEDICATED DEN
• CONVENIENT MUDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2618 Paradise Plum Dr, Sarasota FL 34240; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price noted (agent to confirm current price and details)

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan named Azure; Listed as Plan inventory type
• Construction: New construction
• Exterior features: Property marketed as a new construction plan (Azure)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living areas sized within 4443 total living area (see exterior section for size)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $11k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($31k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $11k).
• Cap rate 299.3% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.7%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($130k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $74 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $317 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $10,570

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 31.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 299.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 1046.54%
• DSCR: 47.56
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 52.66×
• Total profit: $152,884
• Equity at exit: $1,576

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 104.72×
• Total profit: $306,965
• Equity at exit: $914

Cash invested: $2,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34240

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 403
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,360 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$55
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$13 /mo · $159/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$706
• Net cashflow: $2,581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $92

Max offer price $10,570

Occupancy floor 18%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,588	-5% $2,585	+0% $2,581	+5% $2,577	+10% $2,574
Rent	-10% $2,316	-5% $2,448	+0% $2,581	+5% $2,714	+10% $2,847
Rate	-1.0pp $2,586	-0.5pp $2,584	base $2,581	+0.5pp $2,578	+1.0pp $2,576

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,642
• Closing costs: $317
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $10,570 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $10,570 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $10,570 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $10,570 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $10,570 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $10,570 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on marketlisting id $10,570 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,056,990 Active 298 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,056,990 Active 296 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,056,990 Active 293 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,056,990 Active 292 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,056,990 Active 291 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,056,990 Active 290 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,056,990 Active 289 DOM
16. 2026-02-03
    price $1,056,990 1480-char remark
17. 2025-08-16
    listed $1,050,990 Active 1480-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$592
• − Property taxes: −$159
• − Insurance: −$53
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,225
• − Management: −$3,225
• − Depreciation: −$307
• Taxable income: $32,755
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,861
• After-tax cash flow: $23,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,774
• Household income: $130,148
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 355.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.09%
• Current HPI: 318.5617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.69%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B