21 Walnut Ln · New Kingstown, PA 17015

$25,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1994 ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 21 Walnut Lane in Carlisle, PA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-full-bath mobile home offers comfortable living in a peaceful setting. Step inside to find a bright and inviting living room with plenty of space for relaxation and gatherings. The kitchen features ample cabinetry, a gas range, and room for casual dining—perfect for everyday meals or entertaining friends. Each bedroom provides a cozy retreat, while two full bathrooms add convenience for the whole household. Outside, enjoy a private driveway and a covered entryway, along with a yard that’s ideal for outdoor activities or simply soaking up the fresh air. And the location? It’s a nature lover’s dream&

Key facts

• Covered entryway
• Private driveway
• Ample cabinetry

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• COVERED ENTRYWAY
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• GAS RANGE
• CLOSE TO APPALACHIAN TRAIL
• MEANDERING CONODOGUINET CREEK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished living area documented (source: Assessor)
• Financial info: Annual ground rent listed in income/expense information
• HOA & community: Monthly land lease of $704.40; 99 years of land lease remaining; Ground rent applies

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (2 spaces); Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers; Public sewer; Public/community water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Located in Country Manor West MHP; Land lease ownership with monthly land lease
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Manufactured structure; Make: Commodore
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Porch(es); Ground rent exists

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level (Master Bedroom, Bedroom 2, Bedroom 3)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump(s); Natural gas heating fuel; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Living room; Laundry room; Deck(s) and porch(es); Not located in a federal flood zone
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 64.8% vs local median 2.8% in New Kingstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,606 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland Valley Hs (math 66% / reading 24%, grade D-, #191 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 3,035 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cumberland Valley SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 64.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 209.02%
• DSCR: 10.30
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $952
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52 Buckeye Ln	0.17mi	2/1.0	1,032 (+8%)	6mo	$1,500	$1	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.52×
• Total profit: $73,633
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.46×
• Total profit: $164,226
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $406/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $1,219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $222

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,233	-5% $1,226	+0% $1,219	+5% $1,212	+10% $1,205
Rent	-10% $1,080	-5% $1,150	+0% $1,219	+5% $1,289	+10% $1,359
Rate	-1.0pp $1,232	-0.5pp $1,226	base $1,219	+0.5pp $1,213	+1.0pp $1,206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $25,000
3. 2026-03-03
   status Active
4. 2026-02-16
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-31
   price $27,000
6. 2026-01-13
   price $32,000
7. 2025-11-20
   listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $406 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $406 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$406
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,695
• − Management: −$1,695
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $15,136
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,633
• After-tax cash flow: $10,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Kingstown

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1606
• US rank: #21798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $25,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $27,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $32,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $35,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $406 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.