16444 Stinson Ln · Conroe, TX 77316

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,722 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1970 0.57 ac lot $116/sqft · 16% below area Est $238k · 16% under $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AS-IS. This house is located on three lots in the Lake Bonanza subdivision. 4th lot, #70, will be included in sale totaling over .5 acre. Endless possibilities—perfect for first-time homebuyers or savvy investors. Situated in a wooded neighborhood featuring a community pool and a beautiful lake, with easy access to schools, parks, and shopping. Don’t miss this incredible opportunity to own a property with so much potential.

Key facts

• Beautiful lake
• Three lots
• Community pool

Tags

• THREE LOTS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• BEAUTIFUL LAKE
• WOODED NEIGHBORHOOD
• EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.05%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,230
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -16.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16655 Holly Ln S	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-1%)	13mo	$259,999	$153	68
5899 Skylane Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-14%)	10mo	$232,000	$157	60
16502 Piper Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,595 (-7%)	19mo	$220,000	$138	58
5693 Cessna Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (-14%)	2mo	$295,000	$199	52
6047 Cessna Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,820 (+6%)	15mo	$249,900	$137	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,731
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,721
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,092 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,735

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $395	-5% $339	+0% $282	+5% $226	+10% $169
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $200	+0% $282	+5% $365	+10% $447
Rate	-1.0pp $383	-0.5pp $333	base $282	+0.5pp $230	+1.0pp $178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4777 Holly Ln W Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,450	$0.85	19d	1	0.37mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	44d	1	1.45mi
632 Levine Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,275	$1.02	7d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-02-24
    listed $199,900 Active 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    AS-IS. This house is located on three lots in the Lake Bonanza subdivision. 4th lot, #70, will be included in sale totaling over .5 acre. Endless possibilities—perfect for first-time homebuyers or savvy investors. Situated in a wooded neighborhood featuring a community pool and a beautiful lake, with easy access to schools, parks, and shopping. Don’t miss this incredible opportunity to own a property with so much potential.

16. 1991-09-04
    soldstatus
17. 1990-12-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,535 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,124/yr (+$94/mo · 44.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,009
• − Management: −$2,009
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$50
• After-tax cash flow: $3,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 1991-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,535 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.