27250 Murrieta #77 · Menifee, CA 92586

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1989 $94/sqft · 22% below area Est $174k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a diamond in the rough! Just needs a little bit of TLC like carpet and paint and this will be the dream home! 2 car attached garage, patio cover allow you to have all the space that you want. With a slider coming directly off the dining area, it's a great way to entertain or have the afternoon breeze. 3 bedrooms instead of the traditional 2 bedrooms. All 3 bedrooms are nice and spacious and the primary has a huge bathroom. The open kitchen gives you plenty of room to work while still being able to entertain. Priced to move!!

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Open kitchen
• Patio cover

Tags

• ATTACHED GARAGE
• PATIO COVER
• SLIDER OFF DINING AREA
• OPEN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 3.6% in Menifee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,532/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1163% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $135k implies a 694% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.26%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,098
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -22.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27250 Murrieta #120	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$139	94
27250 Murrieta Rd #109	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$170,600	$118	94
27250 Murrieta #126	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	0mo	$225,000	$143	81
27250 Murrieta Rd #359	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-8%)	1mo	$55,000	$42	80
27250 Murrieta #85	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,570 (+9%)	0mo	$145,000	$92	80
27250 Murrieta Rd #332	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,570 (+9%)	2mo	$160,000	$102	79
27250 Murrieta Rd #216	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-10%)	2mo	$110,000	$85	77
27701 Murrieta #56	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$100,000	$69	71
27701 Murrieta #82	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$69	66
27701 Murrieta Rd #111	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+5%)	2mo	$115,000	$76	63
27701 Murrieta Rd #255	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	0mo	$45,000	$33	56
27601 Sun City Blvd #306	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-8%)	0mo	$173,000	$131	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $62,986
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $189,121
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92586

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,532 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $373/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $1,205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,007

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,282	-5% $1,243	+0% $1,205	+5% $1,167	+10% $1,129
Rent	-10% $1,005	-5% $1,105	+0% $1,205	+5% $1,305	+10% $1,405
Rate	-1.0pp $1,273	-0.5pp $1,240	base $1,205	+0.5pp $1,170	+1.0pp $1,135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29196 Crestone Dr Sun City, CA	2.0	2.0	1393	$1,995	$1.43	19d	1	0.30mi
26772 Maris Ct Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1715	$2,800	$1.63	2d	1	0.48mi
27305 Uppercrest Ct Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,353	$1.79	22d	1	0.53mi
27055 Fan Ln Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1800	$2,950	$1.64	2d	1	0.63mi
25615 Union Hill Dr Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,550	$1.89	15d	1	0.66mi
26805 China Dr Menifee, CA	3.0	2.5	1773	$3,000	$1.69	24d	1	0.82mi
25861 McCall Blvd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1378	$2,350	$1.71	2d	1	0.83mi
28033 Radford Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1520	$2,400	$1.58	10d	1	0.91mi
26156 Birkdale Rd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1285	$2,000	$1.56	2d	1	0.91mi
28375 Paseo Grande Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1285	$2,395	$1.86	2d	1	0.96mi
28323 Murrieta Rd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1098	$2,350	$2.14	20d	1	1.09mi
25650 Hartwick Rd Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,650	$1.65	22d	1	1.13mi
28244 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	2d	1	1.34mi
28461 Portsmouth Dr Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,685	$1.85	2d	1	1.37mi
28301 Encanto Dr Unit 10 Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	18d	1	1.37mi
26542 Sun City Blvd Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1530	$2,295	$1.50	10d	1	1.38mi
28301 Encanto Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,025	$2.32	2d	5	1.45mi
28082 Bavaria Dr Menifee, CA	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,250	$2.11	2d	1	1.45mi
27709 Camino Donaire Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1317	$3,000	$2.28	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-03-05
    listed $135,000 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    This is a diamond in the rough! Just needs a little bit of TLC like carpet and paint and this will be the dream home! 2 car attached garage, patio cover allow you to have all the space that you want. With a slider coming directly off the dining area, it's a great way to entertain or have the afternoon breeze. 3 bedrooms instead of the traditional 2 bedrooms. All 3 bedrooms are nice and spacious and the primary has a huge bathroom. The open kitchen gives you plenty of room to work while still being able to entertain. Priced to move!!

15. 2020-04-22
    historical
16. 2020-02-07
    status Active
17. 2020-02-04
    historical
18. 2019-11-08
    status Active
19. 2019-11-08
    price $110,000
20. 2019-10-31
    historical
21. 2019-07-15
    historical
22. 2019-07-12
    listed $139,900 Active
23. 2019-07-07
    listed $139,000 Active
24. 2012-04-13
    soldstatus $17,000 Closed
25. 2012-03-21
    status Pending
26. 2012-01-20
    price $22,500 Active
27. 2012-01-20
    status Active
28. 2012-01-11
    status Pending
29. 2011-12-05
    listed $25,000 Active
30. 2011-12-04
    historical
31. 2011-11-26
    status Active
32. 2011-11-10
    status Pending
33. 2011-11-02
    listed $30,000 Active
34. 2009-02-10
    historical
35. 2008-08-09
    listed $80,000
36. 2007-04-21
    historical
37. 2007-04-21
    listed $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $373 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,026 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$653/yr (+$54/mo · 174.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$373
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,431
• − Management: −$2,431
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $12,989
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,117
• After-tax cash flow: $11,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Menifee, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,767
• Household income: $57,708
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1163.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.10%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+8.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $135,000 CRMLS
• 2020-04-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-02-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2020-02-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-11-08 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2019-11-08 Price Changed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2019-10-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-07-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-07-12 Listed $139,900 CRMLS
• 2019-07-07 Listed $139,000 CRMLS
• 2012-04-13 Sold (MLS) $17,000 CRMLS
• 2012-03-21 Pending — CRMLS
• 2012-01-20 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2012-01-20 Price Changed $22,500 CRMLS
• 2012-01-11 Pending — CRMLS
• 2011-12-05 Listed $25,000 CRMLS
• 2011-12-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-11-26 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2011-11-10 Pending — CRMLS
• 2011-11-02 Listed $30,000 CRMLS
• 2009-02-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-08-09 Listed $80,000 CRMLS
• 2007-04-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-04-21 Listed $125,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $373 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.