1194 US - Hwy 12 #61 · Central Park, WA 98563

$18,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 224 Days on market

Built 1975 $22/sqft · 106% above area ↓ 24% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Owner Financing Available! The mobile home located in Hidden Valley MHP with space rent of $795 per month. build sweat equity with this one fixer! 2 bedroom 2 bathroom

Key facts

• 85 parking spots
• Built 1975
• Listed 223 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($905 rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#174 in WA, #4,470 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Montesano School District (town): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #60 of 291 in WA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $128 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $555 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $16,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 140.67%
• DSCR: 7.26
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $8,998
• List price: $18,500
• Delta: 105.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1194 US - HWY 12 #18	0.00mi	2/2.0	924 (+10%)	10mo	$9,000	$10	75
1194 US - Hwy 12 #19	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	896 (+7%)	8mo	$3,500	$4	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.89×
• Total profit: $35,679
• Equity at exit: $2,758

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.61×
• Total profit: $80,876
• Equity at exit: $1,600

Cash invested: $5,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98563

• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $905 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$97
• Tax from tax record: −$3 /mo · $40/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $137

Max offer price $18,500

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $618	-5% $612	+0% $607	+5% $602	+10% $575
Rent	-10% $536	-5% $571	+0% $607	+5% $643	+10% $679
Rate	-1.0pp $617	-0.5pp $612	base $607	+0.5pp $602	+1.0pp $598

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,625
• Closing costs: $555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $18,500 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $18,500 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $18,500 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $18,500 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $18,500 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $18,500 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $18,500 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $18,500 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $18,500 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $18,500 Active 209 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $18,500 Active 208 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $18,500 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $18,500 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $18,500 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $18,500 Active 204 DOM
16. 2026-04-25
    price $18,500
17. 2026-03-10
    price $19,000
18. 2025-11-30
    price $20,000
19. 2025-11-23
    price $22,500
20. 2025-11-07
    listed $24,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $40 · $3/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $181 · $15/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 348.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,036
• − Property taxes: −$40
• − Insurance: −$92
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$869
• − Management: −$869
• − Depreciation: −$538
• Taxable income: $7,420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,781
• After-tax cash flow: $5,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montesano School District
• NCES district ID: 5305160
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,981
• Composite: 53.15/100
• National rank: #3220
• State rank: #60 of 291 in WA

Livability — Central Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #4470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,630

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.34%
• Current HPI: 213.2127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-24.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $18,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $19,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $20,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed $22,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Listed $24,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $40 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.