181 Kristen Ln · Suffolk, VA 23434

$316,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1996 1.01 ac lot $185/sqft · 30% below area Est $448k · 30% under · waterfront $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in Burnetts Mill in Suffolk, this 3BR/3BA home offers 1,948 sq ft with great potential for a first-time buyer or investor. The first floor features a primary bedroom with en-suite and a second bedroom. The second floor includes a third bedroom and spacious loft that can serve as a 4th bedroom, office, or flex space, plus a full hall bath. Living and dining rooms feature cathedral ceilings, creating an open main living area. Enjoy a backyard patio with beautiful water views and access to Rountree South Pond. A large custom detached storage shed provides excellent space for projects or storage. Offers strong potential to build equity. Convenient to I-64, shop

Key facts

• Water views
• Backyard patio
• Quiet cul-de-sac

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• BACKYARD PATIO
• WATER VIEWS
• CUSTOM DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• ACCESS TO ROUNTREE SOUTH POND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Burnett’s Mill HOA; HOA/POA amenities include clubhouse, playgrounds, and RV storage; POA fee approximately $26 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Street parking
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Cape Cod style; 2 stories (2 living levels); Entry level includes first-floor bedroom and full bath; Accessible features: grab bars and ramp
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac; Patio; Storage shed; On waterfront (navigable pond)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom with full bathroom; Master bedroom with ensuite
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Scuttle access; Walk-in closet; Ceiling fan; Cable hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Utility closet; Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $316k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-759/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Suffolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in VA, #2,896 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
• Suffolk City Public School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #72 of 131 in VA (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hillpoint Elementary (math 31% / reading 57%, grade F, #851 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 737 students, 65% FRL); King'S Fork High (math 44% / reading 77%, grade C+, #244 of 319 statewide, top 77%, 1,697 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 39% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 546 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 680 units permitted in Suffolk city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,414 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $448,284
• List price: $316,000
• Delta: -29.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Toddsbury Ct	0.23mi	4/3.0	1,706 (0%)	1mo	$350,000	$205	88
146 Mallard Dr	0.27mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,706 (0%)	1mo	$345,000	$202	81
208 Widgeon Ct	0.19mi	4/3.0	1,800 (+6%)	8mo	$320,000	$178	76
106 Toddsbury Ct	0.26mi	4/3.0	1,800 (+6%)	4mo	$315,000	$175	76
142 Mallard Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,617 (-5%)	0mo	$351,000	$217	71
104 Benham Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-0%)	8mo	$340,000	$200	68
137 Kristen Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-12%)	3mo	$299,500	$200	63
114 Ashford Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,700 (-0%)	4mo	$378,500	$223	61
236 Abingdon Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (-8%)	7mo	$330,000	$211	59
103 Hopemont Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,541 (-10%)	4mo	$319,000	$207	53
105 Dutchland Trl	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,480 (-13%)	8mo	$349,999	$236	47
129 Norfleet Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,502 (-12%)	4mo	$398,000	$265	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-47,787
• Equity at exit: $47,117

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-14,399
• Equity at exit: $27,322

Cash invested: $88,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23434

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 546
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,544 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,657
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,100/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $304,827

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $26	+0% $-63	+5% $-153	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-264	-5% $-164	+0% $-63	+5% $37	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $17	base $-63	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,000
• Closing costs: $9,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Poplar Grove Cres Suffolk, VA	4.0	2.5	1950	$2,000	$1.03	25d	1	0.29mi
220 Abingdon Cir Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,000	$1.27	45d	1	0.32mi
1007 Robinson Rd Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1584	$3,400	$2.15	9d	1	0.49mi
101 Emerald Ct Suffolk, VA	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,700	$1.29	6d	1	0.55mi
1001 Hillpoint Blvd Suffolk, VA	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,680	$1.22	45d	1	0.58mi
245 Wexford Dr W Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,285	$1.52	45d	1	0.72mi
2005 Waterside Dr Suffolk, VA	2.0–3.0	2.5	1657	$3,068	$1.85	3d	1	0.77mi
3061 Godwin Blvd Suffolk, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$3,017	$2.88	3d	17	0.80mi
128 Majestic Dr Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,150	$1.28	18d	1	0.87mi
129 Corcoran Ln Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1874	$3,000	$1.60	25d	1	0.89mi
115 Squire Reach Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1140	$2,100	$1.84	45d	1	0.96mi
306 Gauntlet Way Suffolk, VA	4.0	2.5	1906	$2,950	$1.55	19d	1	1.05mi
417 Keaton Way Suffolk, VA	5.0	2.0	2046	$2,895	$1.41	6d	1	1.12mi
1549 River Creek Cres Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1768	$2,450	$1.39	6d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $316,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $316,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $316,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $316,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $316,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $316,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $316,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $316,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $316,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $316,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $316,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $316,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $316,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $316,000 Active 997-char remark
15. 2026-02-28
    historical
16. 2025-12-28
    price $318,900
17. 2025-12-01
    price $319,900
18. 2025-11-17
    listed $321,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,100 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,100 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,701
• − Property taxes: −$3,100
• − Insurance: −$1,580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,442
• − Management: −$2,442
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$9,193
• Taxable loss: −$6,240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,498
• After-tax cash flow: $739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suffolk City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103710
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $65,573
• Composite: 48.31/100
• National rank: #2151
• State rank: #72 of 131 in VA

Livability — Suffolk

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #2896

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Suffolk, VA
• County: Suffolk City · 88,108 people
• City population: 88,108
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 54,387
• Household income: $79,877
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1934.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,269 people
• By 2030: 98,269 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 103,177 · +8.3%
• By 2050: 105,777 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 110,963 · +16.5%
• By 2100: 103,711 · +8.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 41% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: D (+15.9) · D 57.4% · R 41.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.9 2020: D+17.3 2016: D+13.8 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.80%
• Current HPI: 158.5866
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.84%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $316,000 REINMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $318,900 REINMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $319,900 REINMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $321,900 REINMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,100 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.