8127 Vanilla Orchid Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$284,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,745 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2025 $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Love where you live in Wayside Village in Houston! This vibrant community offers comfort, convenience, and modern living all in one place. The Woodland floor plan is a spacious two-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a game room, and a 2-car garage—thoughtfully designed for both functionality and style. Enjoy privacy blinds and vinyl plank flooring throughout the first-floor common areas, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The gourmet kitchen is sure to impress with 42-inch cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, plus plenty of space for cooking and gathering. Retreat to the first-floor Owner’s Suite, complete with granite countertops,

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• Privacy blinds

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• COVERED PATIO
• GAME ROOM
• PRIVACY BLINDS

🏗️ New construction. The $284,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,435.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-459 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,953/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $195,254 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.92%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,435
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8127 Vanilla Orchid Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,745 (0%)	1mo	$284,990	$163	99
8128 Vanilla Orchid Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,745 (0%)	2mo	$289,990	$166	97
8105 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,745 (0%)	1mo	$284,990	$163	95
8202 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,881 (+8%)	1mo	$297,900	$158	77
8207 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (-10%)	1mo	$279,900	$178	73
8124 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (-10%)	1mo	$279,900	$178	72
7907 Elowen Grove Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (+5%)	1mo	$295,540	$162	69
10331 Vinca Minor Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (+5%)	1mo	$296,040	$162	68
10319 Vinca Minor Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (+5%)	0mo	$296,290	$162	68
7816 Laurel Gem Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (+5%)	2mo	$288,740	$158	61
7706 Tully Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-8%)	2mo	$300,000	$188	45
7706 Langley Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,006 (+15%)	2mo	$150,000	$75	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $94,985
• Equity at exit: $228,764

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $289,231
• Equity at exit: $466,743

Cash invested: $79,642 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,492
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,267/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,534

Max offer price $217,994

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,109
• Closing costs: $8,533
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,520	$1.49	8d	1	0.25mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	44d	1	0.27mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	24d	1	0.42mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	8d	1	0.42mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	44d	1	0.57mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	24d	1	0.60mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	8d	1	0.61mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,782	$2.53	8d	1	0.63mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	44d	1	0.67mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	15d	1	0.76mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	15d	1	0.76mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	24d	1	0.76mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	19d	1	0.86mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	44d	1	0.88mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	8d	1	0.93mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	5d	1	0.94mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	44d	1	1.09mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	44d	1	1.09mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	17d	1	1.09mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	1d	5	1.14mi
7426 Bigwood St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1997	$1,850	$0.93	14d	1	1.15mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	14d	1	1.17mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	44d	1	1.41mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	22d	1	1.44mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	1.46mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	24d	1	1.48mi
9218 Nyssa St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,490	$0.93	2d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   price $284,990
3. 2026-03-03
   listed $292,266 Active
4. 2026-02-23
   historical
5. 2025-11-14
   price $284,990
6. 2025-10-22
   status Active
7. 2025-10-08
   status Pending
8. 2025-09-22
   listed $283,990 Active
9. 2025-09-22
   historical
10. 2025-08-15
    price $283,990
11. 2025-06-12
    listed $292,266 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,933
• − Property taxes: −$4,267
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$8,274
• Taxable loss: −$10,646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,555
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $284,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $292,266 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $284,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $283,990 HARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $283,990 HARMLS
• 2025-06-12 Listed $292,266 HARMLS