25 Mill St · Middletown, NY 10940

$399,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1900 5,375 sqft lot Est $425k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Completely renovated two-unit property with Residential/CMU zoning. Ideal opportunity for an owner-user or investor — operate your business on the first floor while generating rental income from the occupied second-floor unit. Property includes 2 car parking/off-street parking, with potential for expansion subject to city approvals.

Key facts

• Off-street parking
• 5,375 sq ft lot
• Built 1900

Tags

• RENOVATED TWO-UNIT PROPERTY
• RESIDENTIAL CMU ZONING
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Duplex
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units (multi-unit duplex configuration)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Built-in storage; Unfinished walk-out basement with additional storage space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $661 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $388k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-.
• Middletown City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Maple Hill Elementary School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,569 of 2,108 statewide, top 75%, 1,012 students, 80% FRL); Middletown Twin Towers Middle School (math 10% / reading 42%, grade F, #595 of 729 statewide, top 82%, 858 students, 78% FRL); Middletown High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 2,523 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 61% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,239/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 1846% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $400k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.09%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $424,944
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 East Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,939 (+4%)	2mo	$440,000	$227	77
48 Mulberry St	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,076 (+11%)	16mo	$340,000	$164	56
20 California Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+8%)	13mo	$350,000	$174	51
31 Beattie Ave	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,668 (-11%)	6mo	$385,000	$231	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-256
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $156,051
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$424 /mo · $5,084/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$890
• Net cashflow: $661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,402

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 79%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1	$2,329
1× unit	1	1	$1,910
Total (2 units)			$4,239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Mill St Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	23d	1	0.04mi
26 Mill St Unit 2 Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	43d	1	0.04mi
7 Mulberry St Middletown, NY	4.0	1.5	1696	$2,800	$1.65	44d	1	0.09mi
26 Washington St Unit 2 Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	2274	$2,100	$0.92	43d	1	0.29mi
8 Roberts St Unit 2-A Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	2132	$2,000	$0.94	23d	1	0.39mi
30 Knapp Ave Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	1532	$1,800	$1.17	43d	1	0.40mi
39 Crescent Pl Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1278	$2,500	$1.96	23d	1	0.42mi
90 Washington St Unit 92 Middletown, NY	2.0	1.0	1600	$2,500	$1.56	23d	1	0.65mi
14 Smith St Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	1852	$3,600	$1.94	13d	1	0.65mi
132 Prospect Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1240	$2,300	$1.85	43d	1	0.90mi
105 Woodlake Dr Middletown, NY	2.0	2.5	2161	$3,000	$1.39	43d	1	0.93mi
184 Highland Ave Middletown, NY	4.0	2.0	1486	$3,500	$2.36	23d	1	0.96mi
186 Highland Ave Unit 1 Middletown, NY	3.0	2.0	2160	$2,800	$1.30	43d	1	0.97mi
225 Monhagen Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	1.0	1466	$2,700	$1.84	13d	1	1.10mi
52 Horton Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	2.5	2340	$3,000	$1.28	43d	1	1.11mi
169 Excelsior Ave Middletown, NY	3.0	1.5	1450	$2,800	$1.93	13d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,900 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,900 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $399,900 Active
18. 2004-05-12
    soldstatus $80,000
19. 1987-05-08
    soldstatus $52,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,084 · $424/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,921 · $493/mo
• Expected delta: +$837/yr (+$70/mo · 16.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$5,084
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,069
• − Management: −$4,069
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable income: $1,612
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$387
• After-tax cash flow: $7,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3619320
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $54,612
• Composite: 41.52/100
• National rank: #3453
• State rank: #411 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 68,033
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+661.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $399,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1987-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,084 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.