9530 Alex Springs Ln · Houston, TX 77044

$228,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2006 4,599 sqft lot $150/sqft · 14% above area Est $230k · at est. $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully updated 3 bedroom 2bath home in the 77044 area is currently undergoing renovations and will be move in ready soon. Featuring 1744 sq ft of comfortable living space this 2006 built home offers an open layout ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. Brand new appliances including refrigerator stove washer and dryer will be installed before move in. Spacious bedrooms, modern finishes, and a functional floor plan make this home a fantastic option for buyers seeking value and convenience. Dont miss this opportunity to own a refreshed home in a growing neighborhood.

Key facts

• 4,599 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sheldon Early Childhood Academy (589 students, 87% FRL); Michael R Null Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,164 students, 89% FRL); C E King H S (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,473 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,935 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.76%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,441
• List price: $228,500
• Delta: -0.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13438 Gardenia Mist Ln	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,669 (+10%)	4mo	$252,000	$151	68
10223 Dawson Hill Ln	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,634 (+8%)	0mo	$229,900	$141	64
13015 Italian Cypress Trl	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,545 (+2%)	7mo	$235,000	$152	62
10114 Orchid Spring Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,655 (+9%)	4mo	$219,990	$133	60
10338 White Fir Villa Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,376 (-10%)	2mo	$234,900	$171	55
9030 Sable Terrace Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (-1%)	8mo	$249,900	$166	53
10307 Leafy Autumn Path	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (+5%)	10mo	$235,000	$147	47
12911 Italian Cypress Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+5%)	9mo	$238,000	$149	46
13203 Adolpho Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,329 (-13%)	10mo	$245,000	$184	45
9518 Belleclaire Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,665 (+10%)	1mo	$193,200	$116	44
13227 Chanel Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,715 (+13%)	0mo	$259,500	$151	42
9110 Saint Laurent Ln	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,743 (+15%)	0mo	$260,000	$149	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-33,436
• Equity at exit: $48,800

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-41,016
• Equity at exit: $46,005

Cash invested: $63,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,198
• Tax from tax record: −$487 /mo · $5,842/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,292

Max offer price $211,927

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-29	+0% $-94	+5% $-158	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-265	-5% $-180	+0% $-94	+5% $-8	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $21	-0.5pp $-36	base $-94	+0.5pp $-153	+1.0pp $-213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,125
• Closing costs: $6,855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10103 Dawson Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2021	$2,249	$1.11	24d	1	0.34mi
13206 Clifton Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	19d	1	0.37mi
10306 White Fir Villa Ave Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,100	$1.35	45d	1	0.56mi
10007 Copper Hollow Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$1,700	$0.96	46d	1	0.67mi
9418 Belleclaire Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,950	$1.37	26d	1	0.74mi
10410 Solitude Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2174	$2,100	$0.97	4d	1	0.82mi
12319 Garden Gale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,766	$1.03	7d	1	1.01mi
12703 Enchanted Path Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,701	$1.19	14d	1	1.18mi
12610 Fern Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,736	$1.45	45d	1	1.24mi
12539 Fern Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,750	$1.47	6d	1	1.27mi
12315 Roy Mix Bohn Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	45d	1	1.30mi
15 Parkway Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,279	$1.15	26d	1	1.35mi
12227 Ghita Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	45d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $228,500 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,500 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,500 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,500 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,500 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,500 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $228,500 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,500 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $228,500 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $228,500 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $228,500 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $228,500 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $228,500 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $228,500 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    listed $228,500 Active 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    This beautifully updated 3 bedroom 2bath home in the 77044 area is currently undergoing renovations and will be move in ready soon. Featuring 1744 sq ft of comfortable living space this 2006 built home offers an open layout ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. Brand new appliances including refrigerator stove washer and dryer will be installed before move in. Spacious bedrooms, modern finishes, and a functional floor plan make this home a fantastic option for buyers seeking value and convenience. Dont miss this opportunity to own a refreshed home in a growing neighborhood.

16. 2026-03-17
    historical

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    This beautifully updated 3 bedroom 2bath home in the 77044 area is currently undergoing renovations and will be move in ready soon. Featuring 1744 sq ft of comfortable living space this 2006 built home offers an open layout ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. Brand new appliances including refrigerator stove washer and dryer will be installed before move in. Spacious bedrooms, modern finishes, and a functional floor plan make this home a fantastic option for buyers seeking value and convenience. Dont miss this opportunity to own a refreshed home in a growing neighborhood.

17. 2025-11-06
    listed $228,500 Active
18. 2025-10-31
    historical
19. 2025-08-13
    price $228,500
20. 2025-06-11
    listed $233,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,842 · $487/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,842 · $487/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,800
• − Property taxes: −$5,842
• − Insurance: −$1,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$6,647
• Taxable loss: −$4,890
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,174
• After-tax cash flow: $48/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $228,500 HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $228,500 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $228,500 HARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Listed $233,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,842 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.