Birkdale Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$299,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,154 sqft · Townhouse · 100 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level condominium features an open kitchen, dining room and living room, with lanai access for outdoor living. Near the foyer is the luxe owner's suite and a comfortable spare bedroom perfect for younger residents or guests.

Key facts

• Spare bedroom
• Living room
• Dining room

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• DINING ROOM
• LIVING ROOM
• LANAI ACCESS
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPARE BEDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 5637 Lightning Whelk Ln, Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211
• Financial info: List price $299,999

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan: Birkdale
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,154 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Birkdale)

🏗️ New construction. The $299,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $288,500.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1164 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $272,999 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.30%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19116 Scallop Loop #402	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	1mo	$300,000	$260	89
19140 Scallop Loop #405	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	7mo	$327,098	$292	84
19116 Scallop Loop #302	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	1mo	$272,000	$236	77
19116 Scallop Loop #207	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	1mo	$289,000	$250	77
19116 Scallop Loop #102	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,154 (0%)	1mo	$285,000	$247	77
19140 Scallop Loop #205	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	7mo	$265,000	$221	77
19116 Scallop Loop #305	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	1mo	$280,000	$250	72
19116 Scallop Loop #304	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	1mo	$270,000	$241	72
19116 Scallop Loop #303	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	1mo	$289,000	$258	72
19116 Scallop Loop #204	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	1mo	$280,000	$250	72
19140 Scallop Loop #204	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	5mo	$265,000	$237	68
18923 Scallop Loop #208	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,032 (-11%)	1mo	$435,000	$422	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-40,786
• Equity at exit: $43,016

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-48,901
• Equity at exit: $24,944

Cash invested: $80,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1164
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,805 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,513
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,328/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,524

Max offer price $288,500

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $322	+0% $222	+5% $122	+10% $23
Rent	-10% $0	-5% $111	+0% $222	+5% $333	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $367	-0.5pp $295	base $222	+0.5pp $147	+1.0pp $71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,125
• Closing costs: $8,655
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19007 Scallop Loop Unit 204 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,400	$1.76	18d	1	0.19mi
18923 Scallop Loop #205 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	5d	1	0.21mi
19140 Scallop Loop Unit 401 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$2,000	$1.81	25d	1	0.42mi
19140 Scallop Loop Unit 102 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,750	$2.38	5d	1	0.42mi
19140 Scallop Loop Unit 308 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$2,800	$2.15	25d	1	0.42mi
19116 Scallop Loop Unit 403 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,500	$2.23	18d	1	0.45mi
19116 Scallop Loop Unit 203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,195	$1.90	25d	1	0.45mi
5685 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1329	$3,100	$2.33	25d	1	0.52mi
5711 Palmer Cir #206 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1462	$3,000	$2.05	25d	1	0.55mi
5721 Palmer Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1452	$3,250	$2.24	25d	2	0.57mi
5674 Palmer Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1336	$3,050	$2.28	5d	2	0.59mi
5674 Palmer Cir #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1336	$3,100	$2.32	25d	1	0.59mi
5664 Palmer Cir #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$3,400	$2.51	25d	1	0.60mi
5710 Palmer Cir #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1462	$4,500	$3.08	25d	1	0.62mi
5624 Palmer Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$4,875	$3.66	4d	1	0.73mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1300	$2,300	$1.77	25d	5	0.84mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$2,200	$1.68	3d	3	0.84mi
18028 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$1,950	$1.49	18d	6	0.86mi
5558 Palmer Cir #106 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1462	$6,000	$4.10	25d	1	0.87mi
5548 Palmer Cir #103 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,200	$1.62	23d	1	0.88mi
5528 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,000	$1.48	18d	1	0.88mi
18008 Gawthrop Dr #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,500	$2.17	18d	1	0.89mi
17902 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1546175P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,965	$2.32	18d	1	0.91mi
17810 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1453	$2,200	$1.51	21d	2	0.91mi
17902 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1213	$3,500	$2.89	18d	4	0.91mi
5567 Palmer Cir #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1336	$5,500	$4.12	25d	1	0.94mi
5557 Palmer Cir #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$3,500	$2.58	25d	1	0.95mi
5517 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1329	$4,000	$3.01	25d	1	0.96mi
17724 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1220	$2,500	$2.05	13d	3	0.96mi
5507 Palmer Cir #105 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1329	$2,750	$2.07	25d	1	0.97mi
17626 Gawthrop Dr #206 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$5,500	$4.82	25d	1	0.98mi
17704 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1545826P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$3,163	$2.21	16d	1	0.98mi
17704 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$2,375	$2.08	25d	3	0.98mi
17510 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1196	$1,950	$1.63	5d	5	1.02mi
17520 Gawthrop Dr Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$3,000	$2.68	25d	1	1.02mi
17520 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1214	$2,600	$2.14	25d	2	1.02mi
17929 Cherished Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1432	$3,000	$2.09	5d	1	1.15mi
17918 Cherished Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1452	$3,000	$2.07	25d	1	1.17mi
17118 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1214	$2,100	$1.73	16d	3	1.24mi
17118 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1214	$2,495	$2.06	3d	2	1.24mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,999 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,999 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,999 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,999 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,999 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,999 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,999 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,999 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,999 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,999 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,999 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,999 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,999 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,999 Active 79 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,160
• − Property taxes: −$4,328
• − Insurance: −$1,442
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,693
• − Management: −$2,693
• − Depreciation: −$8,393
• Taxable loss: −$2,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$492
• After-tax cash flow: $3,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B