1556 Rayne Pt · Middleburg, FL 32068

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 143 Days on market

Built 2023 1.05 ac lot Est $216k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand New Affordable MFH on an acre lot in popular Rural Middleburg. Home has GR & large kitchen area with tons of cabinets & counter space, and all appliances are energy rated. Has a big food prep island to eat at & also has a DR. The Master suite has two walk in closets with a large tub/shower combo. The other 2 Brs are at other end of home with their shared bath. Has a large interior laundry room. Home has new well & septic & comes with a one year warranty from closing. Home still in permitting stage & power & skirting should be on by end of Feb. Can be viewed and purchased now for a 30/45 day closing.

Key facts

• Master suite
• Large kitchen area
• Walk in closets

Tags

• ACRE LOT
• LARGE KITCHEN AREA
• BIG FOOD PREP ISLAND
• MASTER SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• LARGE TUB SHOWER COMBO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; Single-story (one level); Entry on level 1; Property attached
• Construction: Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Pond on the property; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Electric oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Pantry; Primary bathroom with tub and shower; Smart thermostat; Split bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clay Hill Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 442 students, 100% FRL); Wilkinson Junior High School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 752 students, 100% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 35% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,661 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.64%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,384
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5566 Oregon Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+13%)	6mo	$245,000	$138	52
5781 Maverick Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,430 (-9%)	17mo	$108,000	$76	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-51,656
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-55,328
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,903/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,169

Max offer price $231,713

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-87	+0% $-160	+5% $-234	+10% $-307
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-238	+0% $-160	+5% $-82	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-29	-0.5pp $-94	base $-160	+0.5pp $-227	+1.0pp $-296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $260,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,000 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    price $260,000
16. 2026-01-29
    listed $270,000 Active
17. 2023-04-21
    soldstatus $247,500 Sold 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Brand New Affordable MFH on an acre lot in popular Rural Middleburg. Home has GR & large kitchen area with tons of cabinets & counter space, and all appliances are energy rated. Has a big food prep island to eat at & also has a DR. The Master suite has two walk in closets with a large tub/shower combo. The other 2 Brs are at other end of home with their shared bath. Has a large interior laundry room. Home has new well & septic & comes with a one year warranty from closing. Home still in permitting stage & power & skirting should be on by end of Feb. Can be viewed and purchased now for a 30/45 day closing.

18. 2023-02-08
    status Pending 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Brand New Affordable MFH on an acre lot in popular Rural Middleburg. Home has GR & large kitchen area with tons of cabinets & counter space, and all appliances are energy rated. Has a big food prep island to eat at & also has a DR. The Master suite has two walk in closets with a large tub/shower combo. The other 2 Brs are at other end of home with their shared bath. Has a large interior laundry room. Home has new well & septic & comes with a one year warranty from closing. Home still in permitting stage & power & skirting should be on by end of Feb. Can be viewed and purchased now for a 30/45 day closing.

19. 2023-01-28
    listed $245,000 Active 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Brand New Affordable MFH on an acre lot in popular Rural Middleburg. Home has GR & large kitchen area with tons of cabinets & counter space, and all appliances are energy rated. Has a big food prep island to eat at & also has a DR. The Master suite has two walk in closets with a large tub/shower combo. The other 2 Brs are at other end of home with their shared bath. Has a large interior laundry room. Home has new well & septic & comes with a one year warranty from closing. Home still in permitting stage & power & skirting should be on by end of Feb. Can be viewed and purchased now for a 30/45 day closing.

20. 2022-09-19
    soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,903 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,903 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,903
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$6,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,562
• After-tax cash flow: $-360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+364.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $260,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $270,000 realMLS
• 2023-04-21 Sold (MLS) $247,500 realMLS
• 2023-02-08 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-01-28 Listed $245,000 realMLS
• 2022-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+24.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,903 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.