241 Stony Creek Rd · Lake Luzerne, NY 12835

$94,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1950 0.63 ac lot $71/sqft · 74% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Best deal in Hadley, Great area sits of the road. Full basement with a pull in Garage. Nice yard. Shed. Large kitchen and double living room. Nice entry area.

Key facts

• 0.63 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 7.0% in Lake Luzerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#682 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hadley-Luzerne Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #396 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.02%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,298
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -73.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Third Ave	0.71mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,460 (+9%)	17mo	$250,000	$171	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $71,497
• Equity at exit: $85,493

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.34×
• Total profit: $195,092
• Equity at exit: $184,370

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12835

• Home prices YoY: 20.0%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,926/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $883

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,900 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,900 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    status Active 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Best deal in Hadley, Great area sits of the road. Full basement with a pull in Garage. Nice yard. Shed. Large kitchen and double living room. Nice entry area.

16. 2025-12-20
    status Pending 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Best deal in Hadley, Great area sits of the road. Full basement with a pull in Garage. Nice yard. Shed. Large kitchen and double living room. Nice entry area.

17. 2025-11-26
    price $94,900 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Best deal in Hadley, Great area sits of the road. Full basement with a pull in Garage. Nice yard. Shed. Large kitchen and double living room. Nice entry area.

18. 2025-10-17
    listed $104,900 Active 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Best deal in Hadley, Great area sits of the road. Full basement with a pull in Garage. Nice yard. Shed. Large kitchen and double living room. Nice entry area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,926 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,926 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,926
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $2,385
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$572
• After-tax cash flow: $3,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hadley-Luzerne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3292
• State rank: #396 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Luzerne

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #682
• US rank: #12851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,700

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.89%
• Current HPI: 328.7243
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-12-20 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $94,900 Global MLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $104,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,926 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.