2918 Ranch Road 620 Rd N Unit C122 · Hudson Bend, TX 78734

$199,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,556 sqft · SingleFamily · 64 Days on market

Built 1981 Good condition 5,906 sqft lot $128/sqft · 61% below area $1061/mo HOA · 42% of rent ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience lake living in this beautifully located condo at Villas on Travis, nestled in the heart of the Lake Travis area. Surrounded by rolling hills, scenic water views, and resort-style vibes, this community offers the perfect balance of relaxation and convenience. Enjoy quick access to Lake Travis marinas, waterfront dining, boating, paddle boarding and endless outdoor recreation. Nice 3 bed 3 bath condo nearby parks, hiking trails, golf courses, and entertainment make every weekend feel like a getaway. Ideally situated off Ranch Road 620, you’re just minutes from Lakeway, Bee Cave, shopping, restaurants, and an easy drive into Austin.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Water views
• Waterfront dining

Tags

• WATER VIEWS
• WATERFRONT DINING
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• HIKING TRAILS
• GOLF COURSES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has homeowners association (Villas on Travis HOA); Monthly association fee; HOA covers common area maintenance, insurance, internet, grounds maintenance, pest control, sewer, security, trash and water; Community amenities include barbecue, clubhouse, fitness center, fishing, gated entry, lake, pool, sport courts, community mailboxes, courtyard, sidewalks, tennis courts, trails/paths and curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (covered, lighted, open, common area); 1 designated parking space
• Security: 24-hour security; Controlled access; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story property; Faces southeast; Resale
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Balcony; Community pool and community spa; Views; Waterfront on the Colorado River

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Stainless steel appliances; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 1 main level bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; High-speed internet; Interior steps; Multiple closets; Recessed lighting; Tile countertops; Blinds; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry in closet on main and lower levels

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-443 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (32.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.6% in Hudson Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,006 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake Travis El (math 31% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 763 students, 38% FRL); Hudson Bend Middle (math 57% / reading 52%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 900 students, 0% FRL); Lake Travis H S (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,701 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,950 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.53%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $516,478
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -61.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15405 Sutton Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,692 (+9%)	6mo	$340,000	$201	56
3907 Eck Ln	0.65mi	3/3.0	1,694 (+9%)	9mo	$495,500	$293	48
15316 Oklahoma St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,396 (-10%)	21mo	$380,000	$272	42
15107 Lariat Trl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-12%)	17mo	$449,500	$328	35
4007 Eck Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,738 (+12%)	10mo	$550,000	$316	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-55,778
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-65,256
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78734

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,524 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$1,061
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,084

Max offer price $134,950

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-305	-5% $-374	+0% $-443	+5% $-511	+10% $-580
Rent	-10% $-642	-5% $-542	+0% $-443	+5% $-343	+10% $-243
Rate	-1.0pp $-342	-0.5pp $-392	base $-443	+0.5pp $-494	+1.0pp $-547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2918 Ranch to Market Road 620 Unit 172 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1161	$1,995	$1.72	45d	1	0.04mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit C120 Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1542	$2,475	$1.61	3d	1	0.05mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit Y194 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,195	$1.82	6d	1	0.05mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit V267 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,100	$1.81	45d	1	0.05mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N Apt 272 Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1395	$2,195	$1.57	5d	1	0.08mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N #265 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,100	$1.74	4d	1	0.09mi
15216 Kevin Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,395	$1.63	25d	1	0.39mi
15203 Lariat Trl Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2195	$4,200	$1.91	6d	1	0.50mi
15306 Oklahoma St Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,650	$1.55	45d	1	0.53mi
15303 Texas St Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,400	$1.94	25d	1	0.57mi
2208 N FM 620 Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1126	$2,700	$2.40	0d	10	0.70mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit A Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,495	$1.29	23d	1	0.71mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit D Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,379	$1.19	0d	1	0.71mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$1,600	$1.38	45d	1	0.71mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit D Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,415	$1.22	25d	1	0.71mi
2012 Indian Creek Rd Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$3,250	$1.82	45d	1	1.01mi
2102 Crazyhorse Pass Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2057	$2,700	$1.31	25d	1	1.10mi
3248 Brass Buttons Trl Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$2,200	$1.78	25d	1	1.10mi
1104 Buffalo Gap Rd Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1329	$3,500	$2.63	12d	1	1.39mi
4300 Mansfield Dam Rd #1021 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$3,190	$1.89	45d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,061 · $12,732/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $199,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $220,000 654-char remark
16. 2026-04-18
    listed $239,900 Active 654-char remark
17. 2025-10-14
    price
18. 2025-09-15
    price
19. 2025-07-11
    price
20. 2025-05-20
    listed Active
21. 2025-01-09
    historical $2,650
22. 2025-01-09
    historical
23. 2024-11-18
    price $350,000
24. 2024-11-17
    price
25. 2024-11-13
    price $2,650
26. 2024-10-30
    price
27. 2024-10-30
    price $369,000
28. 2024-10-04
    listed $2,800
29. 2024-10-03
    listed Active
30. 2024-10-03
    listed $375,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,423
• − Management: −$2,423
• − HOA: −$12,732
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$8,211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,971
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, lakefront condo is ready for move-in with a good condition score and a good location.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Travis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826470
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $101,194
• Composite: 55.13/100
• National rank: #1283
• State rank: #39 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hudson Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1006
• US rank: #17863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hudson Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,145
• Household income: $130,784
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.08%
• Current HPI: 216.0323
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-46.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $199,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $220,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $239,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-20 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-09 Rental Removed $2,650 ACTRIS
• 2025-01-09 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-11-18 Price Changed $350,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-11-17 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $2,650 ACTRIS
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $369,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listed for Rent $2,800 ACTRIS
• 2024-10-03 Listed $375,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-10-03 Listed — Unlock MLS