2028 Adriana Ave · Celina, TX 75009

$350,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,238 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 172 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,200 sqft lot $156/sqft · 18% below area Est $410k · 15% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Diamond home shines with originality! The exterior of the home serves to be just as beautiful as the interior with its unique designs and beautiful columns structuring the home. The large front porch of the Diamond plan is perfect for relaxing and coffee-sipping. This two-story home is a flexible, open-concept floor plan boasting four bedrooms with two and a half full bathrooms for your convenience. Upon entry, you're greeted by the spacious family room combined with the formal dining area. This layout is perfect for entertaining your family and friends. Overlooking the dining area is the integrated kitchen and breakfast area, making this an ideal space for a family of any size! The kitchen comes equipped with a beautiful kitchen island and counters with granite countertops, designer light fixtures, industry-leading appliances, and a sizable walk-in pantry! With this conducive layout, you can remain part of the conversation, and never miss out on any fun with your visitors! Adjacent to the breakfast area is the convenient downstairs powder room and an extra closet for added storage space. Next to the breakfast area lies your large walk-in utility with your master bedroom just across the room. Retreat to your master bedroom to be met with your master bathroom including cultured marble countertops with double vanities, an elegant super shower, and a huge walk-in closet. With the Diamond floor plan, you have the option to relax in your backyard with an optional covered. ..

Key facts

• Upgraded countertops
• Slow close cabinets
• Open lay out

Tags

• OPEN LAY OUT
• GAME ROOM
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• UPGRADED COUNTERTOPS
• SLOW CLOSE CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-330/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $274,377 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,960
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -14.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1421 Marcella Ln	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,144 (-4%)	2mo	$350,000	$163	90
1436 Bramante	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,193 (-2%)	2mo	$399,950	$182	89
1425 Marcella Ln	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,144 (-4%)	3mo	$350,000	$163	88
1428 Florence Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,196 (-2%)	3mo	$404,950	$184	87
1409 Bramante St	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,144 (-4%)	3mo	$349,990	$163	87
1424 Florence Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,330 (+4%)	2mo	$414,970	$178	84
1737 Sugar Maple Mews	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (-0%)	3mo	$417,635	$187	71
1413 Buchanan Way	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-14%)	2mo	$336,999	$175	61
1013 Fallow Ln	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,438 (+9%)	0mo	$406,551	$167	58
2401 Greenbelt Rd	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,083 (-7%)	3mo	$352,999	$169	56
1512 Canter St	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,501 (+12%)	2mo	$499,000	$200	47
825 Cottontail Way	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,493 (+11%)	1mo	$479,197	$192	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-66,602
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-91,715
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 107 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.3 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $431,990 ($190/sqft)
• Median days on market: 226 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3407
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,744 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,713/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,779

Max offer price $345,145

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $171	-5% $72	+0% $-27	+5% $-127	+10% $-226
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-136	+0% $-27	+5% $81	+10% $189
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $62	base $-27	+0.5pp $-118	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1421 Marcella Ln Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2144	$2,395	$1.12	42d	1	0.04mi
1424 Bettolo Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2706	$3,295	$1.22	23d	1	0.21mi
2212 W J Fred Smith Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$3,500	$2.20	0d	1	0.28mi
1712 Goodnight Trl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2231	$2,450	$1.10	48d	1	0.48mi
2008 Winnsboro Ave Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1973	$2,300	$1.17	41d	1	0.79mi
17405 W FM 455 Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2078	$3,500	$1.68	0d	1	1.04mi
2417 Blackwell St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2098	$3,100	$1.48	0d	1	1.14mi
3100 Arthurdale St Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,399	$1.10	92d	1	1.22mi
2020 Beeflower St Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$2,399	$1.18	92d	1	1.29mi
1404 Pintail Pl Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,300	$1.41	10d	1	1.33mi
1513 Waxwing Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2484	$3,300	$1.33	10d	1	1.42mi
401 Osprey Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2833	$3,150	$1.11	92d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $350,000 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $350,000 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $350,000 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $350,000 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $350,000 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $350,000 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $350,000 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $350,000 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $350,000 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $350,000 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $350,000 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $350,000 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $350,000 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $350,000 Active 153 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $350,000 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $350,000 Active 150 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $350,000 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $350,000 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $350,000 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $350,000 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $350,000 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $350,000 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $350,000 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $350,000 Active 142 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $350,000 Active 140 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $350,000 Active 139 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $350,000 Active 138 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $350,000 Active 137 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 136 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $350,000 Active 135 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $350,000 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $350,000 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $350,000 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $350,000 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $350,000 Active 129 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $350,000 Active 127 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $350,000 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $350,000 Active 124 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $350,000 Active 121 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $350,000 Active 120 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $350,000 Active 119 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $350,000 Active 118 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $350,000 Active 116 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $350,000 Active 112 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $350,000 Active 111 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $350,000 Active 110 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 107 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,000 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,405 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,692/yr (+$391/mo · 273.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$1,713
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,634
• − Management: −$2,634
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$6,446
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,547
• After-tax cash flow: $1,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It's move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and modernize the interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting ↑
• Rental Replace blinds with curtains — Curtains can add a touch of warmth and style to the space ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $394,565 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Listed $394,565 NTREIS

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,713 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.