Robie II Plan · Plant City, FL 33565

$375,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,453 sqft · SingleFamily · 108 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This all concrete block constructed, two-story plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living and dining area, and an outdoor patio. Upstairs, the oversized owner's suite can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as ensuite bathroom with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built.

Key facts

• Large walk-in closet
• Outdoor patio
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DOWNSTAIRS
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• OVERSIZED OWNER'S SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $375,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $396,239.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $375k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $373k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.3% in Plant City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knights Elementary School (math 52% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 623 students, 70% FRL); Marshall Middle Magnet School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,089 students, 69% FRL); Plant City High School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,474 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,259/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,936 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $396,239
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -5.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3434 Lumber Falls Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,399 (-2%)	3mo	$496,999	$207	72
3920 Harvest Hearth Pl	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,537 (+3%)	5mo	$454,545	$179	64
3406 Lumber Falls Dr	0.41mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,600 (+6%)	11mo	$509,000	$196	54
3516 Rosewood Ramble Ct	0.62mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+6%)	9mo	$413,990	$159	53
3331 Ivy Hollow Dr	0.59mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+6%)	14mo	$397,990	$153	51
3436 Ivy Hollow Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,305 (-6%)	20mo	$345,990	$150	51
3519 Thistle Bank Ct	0.56mi	5/3.0	2,639 (+8%)	14mo	$409,990	$155	49
3909 Harvest Hearth Pl	0.45mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,794 (+14%)	4mo	$473,490	$169	45
4005 Harvest Hearth Pl	0.49mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,794 (+14%)	6mo	$479,490	$172	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-74,567
• Equity at exit: $59,081

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-78,135
• Equity at exit: $34,260

Cash invested: $110,947 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 43 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 51.6 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $433,000 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 108 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33565

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,078
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$495 /mo · $5,944/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,466

Max offer price $372,591

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $-27	+0% $-163	+5% $-300	+10% $-437
Rent	-10% $-421	-5% $-292	+0% $-163	+5% $-35	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $36	-0.5pp $-63	base $-163	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-371

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,060
• Closing costs: $11,887
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3440 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,750	$1.06	73d	1	0.35mi
3809 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,800	$0.94	73d	1	0.52mi
3827 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2756	$3,150	$1.14	73d	1	0.56mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3537 Golden Wheat Ln, Plant City FL 33565List price reported as $374,990Listing provided by Zillow

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Robie II)
• Exterior features: Living area reported as 2453

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home — Robie IIActive listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   price $375,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $374,990 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $374,990 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $374,990 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $374,990 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $374,990 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $374,990 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $374,990 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $374,990 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $374,990 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $374,990 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $374,990 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $374,990 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $374,990 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $374,990 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $374,990 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $374,990 Active 84 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $374,990 Active 82 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $374,990 Active 81 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $374,990 Active 80 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $374,990 Active 79 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $374,990 Active 78 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $374,990 Active 76 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $374,990 Active 75 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $374,990 Active 74 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $374,990 Active 72 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    days on market $374,990 Active 71 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $374,990 Active 70 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $374,990 Active 69 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $374,990 Active 68 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $374,990 Active 67 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $374,990 Active 66 DOM
34. 2026-06-26
    days on market $374,990 Active 65 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $374,990 Active 63 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $374,990 Active 61 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $374,990 Active 60 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $374,990 Active 57 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $374,990 Active 56 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $374,990 Active 55 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $374,990 Active 54 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $374,990 Active 52 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $374,990 Active 51 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $374,990 Active 48 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,990 Active 47 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,990 Active 46 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $374,990 Active 43 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,990 Active 42 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,990 Active 41 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,990 Active 40 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,196
• − Property taxes: −$5,944
• − Insurance: −$1,981
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,129
• − Management: −$3,129
• − Depreciation: −$11,527
• Taxable loss: −$8,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,110
• After-tax cash flow: $149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value. Consider painting the exterior and updating light fixtures to further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Updating light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can improve the home's aesthetic and energy efficiency. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Knights Elementary School D FL #1,152/2,144 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Marshall Middle Magnet School F FL #469/571 Nat'l #9,020/14,009 High Plant City High School F FL #312/667 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plant City, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,108
• Household income: $73,414
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.17%
• Current HPI: 347.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3537 Golden Wheat Ln, Plant City FL 33565List price reported as $374,990Listing provided by Zillow

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan home (Robie II)
• Exterior features: Living area reported as 2453

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home — Robie IIActive listing