278 Pfautz Hill Rd · East Cocalico, PA 17578

$109,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2017

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very clean 2 bedroom and 1 bath mobile home with ceiling fans in each room. Comes with utility shed. Lot rent is $460.00 Includes trash

Key facts

• Utility shed
• Ceiling fans
• Built 2017

Tags

• CEILING FANS
• UTILITY SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cocalico SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #130 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,195 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.52%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-10,370
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $272
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17578

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,002 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $714/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $856

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 135-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $109,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $714 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,218 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$504/yr (+$42/mo · 70.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$714
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$962
• − Management: −$962
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable loss: −$436
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$105
• After-tax cash flow: $1,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cocalico SD
• NCES district ID: 4206270
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 46.09/100
• National rank: #2512
• State rank: #130 of 539 in PA

Livability — East Cocalico

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,716

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Black 1% Asian 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5% Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.89%
• Current HPI: 263.2442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $109,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-15.8%/yr

Latest (2019): $714 · -15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.