1849 Glens Falls Mountain Rd · Lake Luzerne, NY 12846

$150,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 3,648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1950 0.71 ac lot $41/sqft · 89% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity to transform an enormous 3,648 sq ft Adirondack retreat on a semi-secluded . 71-acre lot. This home, originally built in 1950 and renovated in 1985, features rustic knotty pine interiors, including floors and walls, a large living room with a fireplace, an expansive dining area, and a generous open kitchen. The layout offers versatility with a front office or in-law suite on the main level and a first-floor bathroom/bedroom combo suitable for multi-generational living. The second floor is anchored by the primary bedroom, which includes an open space that previously housed plumbing for a potential en-suite bathroom, though buyers will need to verify feasibility. The property inc

Key facts

• 0.71 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage; Driveway; Total parking for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Property listed in fixer condition; Lot about 0.71 acre
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Vinyl siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first level; Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level; Additional bedrooms on first and second levels
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on first level)
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Crawl space basement; Total of 12 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#682 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hadley-Luzerne Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #396 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hadley-Luzerne Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 304 students, 54% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 49% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hadley-Luzerne Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $150k implies a 317% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.82%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,365,000
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -89.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $175,087
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.54×
• Total profit: $442,611
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12846

• Home prices YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$369 /mo · $4,428/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$713
• Net cashflow: $1,464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,542

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Active 1699-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1699-char remark
3. 2026-04-25
   price $150,000 1699-char remark
4. 2026-04-25
   listed $15,000 Active 1699-char remark
5. 1997-11-28
   soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,428 · $369/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,428 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$4,428
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,259
• − Management: −$3,259
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $16,276
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,906
• After-tax cash flow: $13,659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hadley-Luzerne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3292
• State rank: #396 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Luzerne

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #682
• US rank: #12851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,007

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 10% German 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.73%
• Current HPI: 336.2179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+316.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-18 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $150,000 Global MLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $15,000 Global MLS
• 1997-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,428 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.