5136 N 31st Pl #617 · Phoenix, AZ 85016

$255,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,319 sqft · Condo public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1981 $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED FIRST FLOOR MODEL. THIS IS A '10'. METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED. PRICED BELOW RECENT APPRAISAL. MASTER HAS BUILT IN DESK W/EXRA PHONE LINE. ALL CLOSETS HAVE THE 'CLASSIC CLOSET' LOOK. LIGHT TILE IN THE ENTRY, KITCHEN AND BATHS. TILE COUNTERS IN THE KITCHEN AND WET BAR. FLOOR TO CEILING DECORATIVE MIRRORS CREATE A OPEN, SPACIOUS FEEL. FOR THE UTMOST IN SECURE LIVING AND LOCATION, THE BILTMORE TERRACE IS THE PLACE TO BE. CALL OWNER FOR SHOWINGS. PLZ

Key facts

• Gated community
• Community amenities
• Spa

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COVERED PATIO
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• SPA
• MAINTAINED COMMON AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features: none
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $385; HOA covers water, sewer, exterior maintenance and roof replacement; Community amenities include pool and biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: Community/common parking structure
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Apartment (attached property); Fee simple ownership; Asphalt road access; City, lake and city lights views
• Construction: Stucco, painted block construction; Built-up roof
• Exterior features: Balcony

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (main level primary bedroom listed)
• Flooring: Tile; Concrete
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Dishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Recommended offer: $251k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Camelback High School (math 6% / reading 7%, grade F, #363 of 381 statewide, top 95%, 2,238 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $153k; list at $255k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.39%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,585
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-5,548
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85016

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,749 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,362/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,117

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $644	-5% $572	+0% $499	+5% $427	+10% $355
Rent	-10% $282	-5% $391	+0% $499	+5% $608	+10% $717
Rate	-1.0pp $628	-0.5pp $564	base $499	+0.5pp $433	+1.0pp $366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5136 N 31st Pl #646 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	1224	$1,995	$1.63	8d	1	0.01mi
5124 N 31st Pl Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1175	$3,700	$3.15	0d	2	0.02mi
5132 N 31st Way #134 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1258	$2,300	$1.83	0d	1	0.03mi
5132 N 31st Way Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1214	$2,300	$1.89	2d	2	0.03mi
5110 N 32nd St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1110	$2,200	$1.98	0d	9	0.12mi
5104 N 32nd St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1173	$5,000	$4.26	23d	4	0.17mi
5104 N 32nd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	1262	$3,550	$2.81	0d	3	0.17mi
2917 E Mariposa St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1472	$3,300	$2.24	0d	1	0.35mi
3308 E Camelback Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1184	$1,700	$1.44	18d	1	0.37mi
3261 E Camelback Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1632	$4,500	$2.76	0d	1	0.40mi
5227 N 24th St #201 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1073	$2,199	$2.05	0d	1	0.54mi
5221 N 24th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1024	$2,995	$2.92	0d	1	0.59mi
2625 E Camelback Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$2,450	$3.04	0d	23	0.61mi
3501 E Camelback Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$2,205	$2.14	0d	7	0.62mi
5213 N 24th St #103 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1189	$2,245	$1.89	2d	1	0.68mi
2802 E Camino Acequia Dr #7 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1628	$20,000	$12.29	0d	1	0.68mi
2802 E Camino Acequia Dr #8 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1415	$15,000	$10.60	0d	1	0.68mi
4819 N 35th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1824	$4,500	$2.47	0d	1	0.68mi
4511 N 31st Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1469	$5,500	$3.74	0d	1	0.68mi
4848 N 36th St #221 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,800	$2.19	16d	1	0.68mi
5209 N 24th St #103 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1192	$2,245	$1.88	2d	1	0.71mi
2802 E Camino Acequia Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1628	$15,000	$9.21	0d	2	0.72mi
4848 N 36th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1198	$2,800	$2.34	17d	2	0.72mi
4848 N 36th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1198	$3,000	$2.50	25d	2	0.72mi
2538 E Coolidge St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1326	$2,400	$1.81	11d	1	0.80mi
5418 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1788	$7,500	$4.19	0d	1	0.82mi
4808 N 24th St #1401 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1334	$4,300	$3.22	19d	1	0.92mi
4808 N 24th St #727 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1089	$3,499	$3.21	2d	1	0.92mi
4808 N 24th St #208 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1558	$6,000	$3.85	3d	1	0.92mi
3057 E Rose Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1470	$5,200	$3.54	0d	1	0.95mi
2704 E Turney Ave #1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	8d	1	0.95mi
2615 E Campbell Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1704	$3,200	$1.88	2d	1	0.95mi
3550 E Campbell Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	913	$1,887	$2.07	0d	8	0.96mi
3037 E Rose Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1470	$5,495	$3.74	0d	1	0.97mi
4302 N 29th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1355	$2,600	$1.92	11d	1	0.98mi
2514 E Campbell Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,600	$1.56	0d	1	0.98mi
4313 N 28th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,850	$2.47	0d	1	0.99mi
4242 N 31st Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$2,400	$2.67	2d	1	1.01mi
6206 N 30th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1640	$2,970	$1.81	0d	1	1.02mi
5805 N 24th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1407	$3,995	$2.84	0d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   status Active
3. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-25
   listed $255,000 Active
5. 2001-03-29
   soldstatus $153,260 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED FIRST FLOOR MODEL. THIS IS A '10'. METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED. PRICED BELOW RECENT APPRAISAL. MASTER HAS BUILT IN DESK W/EXRA PHONE LINE. ALL CLOSETS HAVE THE 'CLASSIC CLOSET' LOOK. LIGHT TILE IN THE ENTRY, KITCHEN AND BATHS. TILE COUNTERS IN THE KITCHEN AND WET BAR. FLOOR TO CEILING DECORATIVE MIRRORS CREATE A OPEN, SPACIOUS FEEL. FOR THE UTMOST IN SECURE LIVING AND LOCATION, THE BILTMORE TERRACE IS THE PLACE TO BE. CALL OWNER FOR SHOWINGS. PLZ

6. 2001-03-28
   soldstatus $153,260
7. 2001-02-20
   historical 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED FIRST FLOOR MODEL. THIS IS A '10'. METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED. PRICED BELOW RECENT APPRAISAL. MASTER HAS BUILT IN DESK W/EXRA PHONE LINE. ALL CLOSETS HAVE THE 'CLASSIC CLOSET' LOOK. LIGHT TILE IN THE ENTRY, KITCHEN AND BATHS. TILE COUNTERS IN THE KITCHEN AND WET BAR. FLOOR TO CEILING DECORATIVE MIRRORS CREATE A OPEN, SPACIOUS FEEL. FOR THE UTMOST IN SECURE LIVING AND LOCATION, THE BILTMORE TERRACE IS THE PLACE TO BE. CALL OWNER FOR SHOWINGS. PLZ

8. 2001-01-03
   listed $159,900 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED FIRST FLOOR MODEL. THIS IS A '10'. METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED. PRICED BELOW RECENT APPRAISAL. MASTER HAS BUILT IN DESK W/EXRA PHONE LINE. ALL CLOSETS HAVE THE 'CLASSIC CLOSET' LOOK. LIGHT TILE IN THE ENTRY, KITCHEN AND BATHS. TILE COUNTERS IN THE KITCHEN AND WET BAR. FLOOR TO CEILING DECORATIVE MIRRORS CREATE A OPEN, SPACIOUS FEEL. FOR THE UTMOST IN SECURE LIVING AND LOCATION, THE BILTMORE TERRACE IS THE PLACE TO BE. CALL OWNER FOR SHOWINGS. PLZ

9. 2000-06-16
   soldstatus $158,000 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   GREAT BILTMORE ESTATES CONDO W/OVER 1300 SF, DESIGNER DECORATED AND FURNISHED. ALL LIGHT COLORS INSIDE. COZY COVERED PATIO OFF DINING ROOM FOR OUTSIDE DINING OR RELAXING. IN THE HEART OF IT ALL, THE BILTMORE SHOPPING, DINING, ACTIVITIES AROUND A WONDERFUL GATE GUARDED COMMUNITY AT A GREAT PRICE. FURNITURE AVAILABLE UNDER SEPARATE CONTRACT. CALL LISTER JEFF @602-5214-6749.

10. 2000-06-08
    soldstatus $158,000
11. 2000-04-19
    historical 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    GREAT BILTMORE ESTATES CONDO W/OVER 1300 SF, DESIGNER DECORATED AND FURNISHED. ALL LIGHT COLORS INSIDE. COZY COVERED PATIO OFF DINING ROOM FOR OUTSIDE DINING OR RELAXING. IN THE HEART OF IT ALL, THE BILTMORE SHOPPING, DINING, ACTIVITIES AROUND A WONDERFUL GATE GUARDED COMMUNITY AT A GREAT PRICE. FURNITURE AVAILABLE UNDER SEPARATE CONTRACT. CALL LISTER JEFF @602-5214-6749.

12. 2000-03-07
    listed $150,000 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    GREAT BILTMORE ESTATES CONDO W/OVER 1300 SF, DESIGNER DECORATED AND FURNISHED. ALL LIGHT COLORS INSIDE. COZY COVERED PATIO OFF DINING ROOM FOR OUTSIDE DINING OR RELAXING. IN THE HEART OF IT ALL, THE BILTMORE SHOPPING, DINING, ACTIVITIES AROUND A WONDERFUL GATE GUARDED COMMUNITY AT A GREAT PRICE. FURNITURE AVAILABLE UNDER SEPARATE CONTRACT. CALL LISTER JEFF @602-5214-6749.

13. 1997-10-21
    soldstatus $147,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,362 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,362 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥111°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$2,362
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,639
• − Management: −$2,639
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable income: $1,987
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$477
• After-tax cash flow: $5,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Union High School District (4286)
• NCES district ID: 0406330
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,055
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9773
• State rank: #224 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,074
• Household income: $87,850
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1542.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Asian 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.91%
• Current HPI: 352.1495
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+73.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $255,000 ARMLS
• 2001-03-29 Sold (MLS) $153,260 ARMLS
• 2001-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $153,260 Public Records
• 2001-02-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2001-01-03 Listed $159,900 ARMLS
• 2000-06-16 Sold (MLS) $158,000 ARMLS
• 2000-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records
• 2000-04-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2000-03-07 Listed $150,000 ARMLS
• 1997-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,362 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.