2963 Santa Rosa Ave Unit B-2 · Santa Rosa, CA 95407

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 94 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $157k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean 3 bedroom close to shopping, freeway and transportation. Bedrooms are split, master on one end and 2 bedrooms and bath on the other. Central kitchen with attached laundry room, spacious living room. Move in condition!!!

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Easy freeway access
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SPACE
• EASY FREEWAY ACCESS
• AFFORDABLE OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount $1,100
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Located in Sunset Mobile Home Park

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public sewer; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) located in a mobile home park
• Construction: Composition roof; Aluminum skirting; Manufactured by Fleetwood
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Covered parking; Guest parking available

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas oven; Free standing refrigerator; Hood over range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with shower stalls
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Skylights in dining area and kitchen; Storage area; Smoke detector
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups inside (220 volts in laundry); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $155k implies a 252% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.61%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,440
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
146 N Star Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	960 (0%)	11mo	$157,000	$164	68
3050 El Toro Way	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (+4%)	18mo	$188,500	$189	60
220 Ricardo Ave	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+15%)	1mo	$179,000	$163	58
305 Aileen Ave	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (+15%)	0mo	$105,000	$95	57
205 Pear Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+15%)	8mo	$160,000	$145	57
273 Aileen Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-6%)	17mo	$120,000	$133	54
319 Apple Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	850 (-12%)	17mo	$111,000	$131	52
324 Aileen Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,060 (+10%)	21mo	$173,500	$164	48
227 Ricardo Ave #227	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	22mo	$227,000	$215	47
144 El Crystal Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	15mo	$259,000	$245	45
38 Wayside Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (+8%)	9mo	$205,000	$197	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $54,370
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $149,005
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95407

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $1,252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,160

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,340	-5% $1,296	+0% $1,252	+5% $1,208	+10% $1,164
Rent	-10% $1,035	-5% $1,143	+0% $1,252	+5% $1,360	+10% $1,469
Rate	-1.0pp $1,330	-0.5pp $1,291	base $1,252	+0.5pp $1,212	+1.0pp $1,171

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1018 Bellevue Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$2,145	$2.12	14d	1	0.29mi
240 Burt St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$2,563	$3.45	14d	10	0.43mi
2327 Summercreek Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$2,920	$2.69	14d	6	0.47mi
325 Yolanda Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$3,526	$3.08	14d	15	0.61mi
2585 Kenton Ct Unit B Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	789	$2,150	$2.72	14d	1	0.74mi
2350 Corby Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,185	$2.42	14d	1	0.86mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1555 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$1,995	$2.67	14d	1	0.86mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1591 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$2,500	$3.35	14d	1	0.86mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 3075 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1047	$2,850	$2.72	14d	1	0.86mi
1020 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$3,549	$3.99	14d	27	0.95mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2130-101 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	920	$2,450	$2.66	14d	1	0.95mi
2111 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$3,465	$3.70	13d	8	1.03mi
147 Colgan Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	623	$1,941	$3.12	14d	3	1.20mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $155,000
18. 2026-04-16
    price $160,000
19. 2026-03-16
    listed $165,000 Active
20. 2011-12-05
    soldstatus $44,000 Sold 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Clean 3 bedroom close to shopping, freeway and transportation. Bedrooms are split, master on one end and 2 bedrooms and bath on the other. Central kitchen with attached laundry room, spacious living room. Move in condition!!!

21. 2011-12-02
    status Contingent (No Show) 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Clean 3 bedroom close to shopping, freeway and transportation. Bedrooms are split, master on one end and 2 bedrooms and bath on the other. Central kitchen with attached laundry room, spacious living room. Move in condition!!!

22. 2011-10-07
    listed $49,900 Active 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Clean 3 bedroom close to shopping, freeway and transportation. Bedrooms are split, master on one end and 2 bedrooms and bath on the other. Central kitchen with attached laundry room, spacious living room. Move in condition!!!

23. 2011-09-02
    historical Withdrawn - Cancel
24. 2011-06-30
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,178 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$708/yr (+$59/mo · 150.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,635
• − Management: −$2,635
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $13,232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,176
• After-tax cash flow: $11,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,036
• Household income: $82,863
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1943.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -852.74%
• Current HPI: 256.4307
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+121.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $155,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $160,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $165,000 BAREIS
• 2011-12-05 Sold (MLS) $44,000 BAREIS
• 2011-12-02 Pending — BAREIS
• 2011-10-07 Listed $49,900 BAREIS
• 2011-09-02 Delisted — BAREIS
• 2011-06-30 Listed $69,900 BAREIS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.