512 Park St · Marlin, TX 76661

$38,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

7,492 sqft lot $46/sqft · 21% below area Est $48k · 21% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this great investment opportunity on a corner lot in Marlin, TX! This property features an incomplete 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home with approximately 822 sqft (per FCAD). The current owner began renovations, including the installation of new windows and other repairs, giving you a head start on completing this charming home. Whether you're looking for a personal project, rental property, or a potential flip, this home offers plenty of upside in a quiet, developing area. Bring your vision and make it your next successful investment! No Survey available.

Key facts

• Corner lot
• New windows
• 7,492 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEW WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($871 rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 5.7% in Marlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,146 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marlin ISD (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #779 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Falls County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($263 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Falls County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,720 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.53%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,256
• List price: $38,000
• Delta: -21.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1414 Park St	0.68mi	2/1.0	850 (+3%)	15mo	$275,000	$324	52
700 N Gresham St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	920 (+11%)	22mo	$29,500	$32	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $29,364
• Equity at exit: $19,646

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.63×
• Total profit: $70,513
• Equity at exit: $32,440

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76661

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,469/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $427

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $38,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $38,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $38,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $38,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $38,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $38,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $38,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $38,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $38,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $38,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $38,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $38,000 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    Don't miss this great investment opportunity on a corner lot in Marlin, TX! This property features an incomplete 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home with approximately 822 sqft (per FCAD). The current owner began renovations, including the installation of new windows and other repairs, giving you a head start on completing this charming home. Whether you're looking for a personal project, rental property, or a potential flip, this home offers plenty of upside in a quiet, developing area. Bring your vision and make it your next successful investment! No Survey available.

17. 2026-05-14
    price $38,000 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Don't miss this great investment opportunity on a corner lot in Marlin, TX! This property features an incomplete 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home with approximately 822 sqft (per FCAD). The current owner began renovations, including the installation of new windows and other repairs, giving you a head start on completing this charming home. Whether you're looking for a personal project, rental property, or a potential flip, this home offers plenty of upside in a quiet, developing area. Bring your vision and make it your next successful investment! No Survey available. Be careful walking the property, some construction material are there. No Survey available.

18. 2026-04-09
    listed $40,000 Active 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Don't miss this great investment opportunity on a corner lot in Marlin, TX! This property features an incomplete 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home with approximately 822 sqft (per FCAD). The current owner began renovations, including the installation of new windows and other repairs, giving you a head start on completing this charming home. Whether you're looking for a personal project, rental property, or a potential flip, this home offers plenty of upside in a quiet, developing area. Bring your vision and make it your next successful investment! No Survey available. Be careful walking the property, some construction material are there. No Survey available.

19. 2026-04-02
    listed $40,000 Active 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    Don't miss this great investment opportunity on a corner lot in Marlin, TX! This property features an incomplete 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home with approximately 822 sqft (per FCAD). The current owner began renovations, including the installation of new windows and other repairs, giving you a head start on completing this charming home. Whether you're looking for a personal project, rental property, or a potential flip, this home offers plenty of upside in a quiet, developing area. Bring your vision and make it your next successful investment! No Survey available.

20. 2025-10-31
    historical
21. 2025-10-27
    historical
22. 2025-09-04
    listed $45,000 Active
23. 2025-09-03
    listed $45,000 Active
24. 2022-12-28
    soldstatus
25. 2022-10-18
    listed $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,469 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,469 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$1,469
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$836
• − Management: −$836
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $3,885
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$932
• After-tax cash flow: $3,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829130
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,255
• Composite: 17.18/100
• National rank: #9106
• State rank: #779 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marlin

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1146
• US rank: #20161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,266

Population outlook (Falls County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,782 people
• By 2030: 15,209 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 14,276 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 13,645 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 13,724 · -13.0%
• By 2100: 13,005 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 30% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Falls

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.7pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 126.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $38,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $38,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $40,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $45,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $45,000 NTREIS
• 2022-12-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-10-18 Listed $39,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+18.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,469 · +21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.