13038 Titleist Dr · Meadow Oaks, FL 34669

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2000 7,002 sqft lot Est $230k · 6% over $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged. Well-maintained home, located in the desirable golf course community of Meadow Oaks! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers 1,232 square feet of comfortable living space with a functional open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. As you step inside, you are greeted by the spacious great room featuring a combined living and dining area, creating an inviting atmosphere for gatherings with family and friends. The living area is bright and airy from the recent interior paint, brand new, neutral-colored carpet, along with tall, vaulted ceilings. The kitchen offers an eat-in dining space, providing the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee while overl

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• Screened rear porch
• New roof

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED REAR PORCH
• WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $52; HOA includes pool access; Association: Sentry Management - Gail Dasher; Community amenities: golf, pool, sidewalks, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Underground utilities; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north; MPUD zoning; Planned unit development
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Front porch; Rear porch; Screened porch; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment; Landscaped with trees; Cleared, level lot; Paved driveway and roads; Located in an unincorporated area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater; Water softener
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room and dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-761/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in Meadow Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#794 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $165k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,881 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,384
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13137 Greenview Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,201 (-2%)	2mo	$235,000	$196	78
12920 Walnut Tree Ln	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,286 (+4%)	6mo	$290,000	$226	63
13252 Norman Cir	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,265 (+3%)	7mo	$230,000	$182	61
12830 Lake Tree Ln	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-9%)	1mo	$145,000	$129	60
13738 Caden Glen Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,278 (+4%)	4mo	$260,000	$203	57
13526 Norman Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+10%)	9mo	$235,000	$173	54
12439 Willow Tree Ave	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,206 (-2%)	8mo	$225,000	$187	54
12519 Knollbrook Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,268 (+3%)	9mo	$227,000	$179	51
12626 Saulston Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+8%)	6mo	$259,000	$196	49
13335 Norman Cir	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,057 (-14%)	4mo	$175,000	$166	48
12714 Saulston Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+10%)	7mo	$250,000	$184	43
12629 White Bluff Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+12%)	3mo	$289,000	$209	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-43,673
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-42,967
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,209

Max offer price $235,829

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $21	+0% $-63	+5% $-148	+10% $-233
Rent	-10% $-232	-5% $-147	+0% $-63	+5% $21	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $-1	base $-63	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12706 White Bluff Rd Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,870	$1.38	2d	1	0.77mi
13341 Tropical Breeze Way Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,000	$1.37	5d	1	0.80mi
13407 Crest Lake Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,915	$1.43	0d	1	1.15mi
12405 Shearwater Dr Unit 12405 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	3d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $245,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,044
• − Management: −$2,044
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,917
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,180
• After-tax cash flow: $419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Meadow Oaks

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #794
• US rank: #18203

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Oaks, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+23.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $198,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $209 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.