393 Nebo St · Goodwater, AL 35072

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 103 Days on market

Built 2021 0.30 ac lot Est $142k · 33% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Home is occupied. Home is very modern and a perfect gem! Home is located on a rented lot and the lot rent will be $175 monthly or the home can be moved.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#136 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Coosa County (rural): math 6% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #110 of 129 in AL (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Coosa County population projected at -44% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.71%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,272
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
393 Nebo St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$81,000	$67	99
248 County Road 64	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	2mo	$150,000	$117	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $22,590
• Equity at exit: $41,469

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $64,686
• Equity at exit: $62,956

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35072

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,076 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $226	+0% $193	+5% $160	+10% $128
Rent	-10% $108	-5% $151	+0% $193	+5% $236	+10% $278
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $217	base $193	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-11
   price $95,000
3. 2026-01-05
   status Active
4. 2025-12-15
   status Pending
5. 2025-12-15
   status Active
6. 2025-10-24
   status Pending
7. 2025-10-08
   listed $99,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,033
• − Management: −$1,033
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $856
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$206
• After-tax cash flow: $2,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coosa County
• NCES district ID: 0100900
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,909
• Composite: 14.72/100
• National rank: #9397
• State rank: #110 of 129 in AL

Livability — Goodwater

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #13307

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodwater, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,725

Population outlook (Coosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,898 people
• By 2030: 7,964 · -10.5%
• By 2040: 6,286 · -29.4%
• By 2050: 4,978 · -44.1%
• By 2075: 3,255 · -63.4%
• By 2100: 2,832 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 39% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Coosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 28.1% · R 71.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+33.5 2016: R+30.6 2012: R+16.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Current HPI: 155.8145
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — MAAR
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $95,000 MAAR
• 2026-01-05 Relisted — MAAR
• 2025-12-15 Pending — MAAR
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — MAAR
• 2025-10-24 Pending — MAAR
• 2025-10-08 Listed $99,999 MAAR