1806 E Poplar St · Stockton, CA 95205

$270,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,217 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1937 4,369 sqft lot $222/sqft · 25% below area Est $359k · 25% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Inside - outside just painted, remodeled bathroom, new granite kitchen counter, new pex waterline, new drain-line, house has partial basement

Key facts

• New drain-line
• Remodeled bathroom
• Partial basement

Tags

• REMODELED BATHROOM
• NEW GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTER
• NEW PEX WATERLINE
• NEW DRAIN-LINE
• PARTIAL BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: King Elementary (987 students, 84% FRL); Stagg Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 1,773 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 78% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Stockton Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $270k implies a 315% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,088 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,179
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -24.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1845 E Poplar St	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,133 (-7%)	6mo	$275,000	$243	80
1815 E Robertson St	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (-6%)	8mo	$360,000	$316	74
1620 E Harding Way	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,242 (+2%)	2mo	$359,000	$289	70
1224 Pinchot	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,214 (-0%)	9mo	$360,000	$297	59
1135 N Pilgrim St	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,140 (-6%)	8mo	$377,000	$331	55
2343 Finland Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,199 (-2%)	13mo	$392,500	$327	54
2421 Hackberry	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+4%)	4mo	$410,000	$325	53
2303 E Acacia St	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,092 (-10%)	12mo	$195,000	$179	52
2327 E Acacia St	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,055 (-13%)	5mo	$330,000	$313	51
2355 E Fremont St	0.58mi	2/1.0	1,088 (-11%)	10mo	$275,000	$253	47
1621 E Regal St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,065 (-12%)	2mo	$339,000	$318	46
1621 N Stanford Ave	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,121 (-8%)	10mo	$360,000	$321	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-50,860
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-53,837
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95205

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $707/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,009

Max offer price $250,682

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $43	-5% $-33	+0% $-109	+5% $-186	+10% $-262
Rent	-10% $-257	-5% $-183	+0% $-109	+5% $-35	+10% $38
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-41	base $-109	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1526 N Sierra Nevada St Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,600	$2.54	25d	1	0.55mi
610 E Oak St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	930	$1,550	$1.67	25d	1	0.87mi
2271 E Church St Stockton, CA	3.0	1.5	1285	$2,245	$1.75	25d	1	1.04mi
945 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	635	$1,450	$2.28	25d	6	1.25mi
44 E Alder St Stockton, CA	1.0	2.0	829	$1,300	$1.57	25d	1	1.40mi
521 S Sutter St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	810	$1,195	$1.48	45d	1	1.43mi
32 E Wyandotte St Apt D Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	45d	1	1.47mi
3232 Sanguinetti Ln Unit A Stockton, CA	3.0	3.0	1378	$2,200	$1.60	25d	1	1.50mi
3232 Sanguinetti Ln Unit B Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1378	$2,200	$1.60	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $270,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $270,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 1999-08-25
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $707 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,345/yr (+$112/mo · 190.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$707
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$6,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,483
• After-tax cash flow: $170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 39,608
• Household income: $60,325
• Rent vs Own: 50.4% rent · 49.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 21% White 9% Asian 6% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 58% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.45%
• Current HPI: 502.8934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 1999-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $707 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.