4022 Belair Ln #2 · Naples, FL 34103

$410,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · Condo public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1978 $767/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the comfort and convenience of this maintenance free charming colonial style condominium. Easy access 1st floor, totally remodeled kitchen and baths with ceramic floors thruout, enclosed shuttered terrace/sunroom. City of Naples location provides all city services with short distance to shopping, dining, beach and all the charm of Naples. Assigned carport & storage. Small pet allowed. 55+ community with allowable exceptions.

Key facts

• Private pool
• Private beach access
• Tile flooring

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS
• PRIVATE LANAI
• TILE FLOORING
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSETS
• PRIVATE STORAGE CLOSET
• PRIVATE POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Condo fee listed quarterly
• HOA & community: Mandatory condo association (Condo management); Quarterly condo fee; Condo fee covers insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, reserves, sewer, trash removal and water; Amenities included: community pool, extra storage, beach access / beach club available, BBQ/picnic area, sidewalk, underground utility, vehicle wash area; Total annual recurring HOA fees noted; One-time fees noted

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned parking space; Guest parking; Paved parking; Under-building open parking; Detached 1-space carport
• Security: Impact resistant doors and windows
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property in a low-rise (1–3) building; Traditional style; 2-story building; Zero lot line; Rear exposure facing west; Located in Park Shore / Lexington at Park Shore community
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Built in 1978; Single-hung impact-resistant windows
• Exterior features: Sprinkler system (automatic); Storage; Sidewalk; Beach access / Beach club available; BBQ / picnic area; Vehicle wash area; Underground utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop (electric); Self-cleaning oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator/freezer; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Master bedroom on ground level; First-floor bedroom; Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and combo tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans (4)
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire / cable available; High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Family room; Screened lanai/porch; Guest bath; Guest room; Furnished; Pantry; Dining area (eat-in / living)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer hookup; Laundry in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $410k).
• Recommended offer: $373k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,176/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($117k/yr) (locally 311% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $115k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $218k; list at $410k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $373,100 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.11%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-7,429
• Equity at exit: $61,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $160,310
• Equity at exit: $35,449

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34103

• Rents YoY: 14.6%
• Active inventory: 479
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$512 /mo · $6,150/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$767
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,087
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,557

Max offer price $410,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3930 Belair Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$6,000	$4.62	23d	1	0.08mi
4082 Belair Ln #11 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$6,000	$3.75	23d	1	0.09mi
4092 Belair Ln #15 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1500	$6,200	$4.13	23d	1	0.13mi
723 Willowhead Dr Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1776	$18,000	$10.14	23d	1	0.23mi
788 Park Shore Dr Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	931	$5,500	$5.90	13d	3	0.30mi
555 Park Shore Dr Unit B410 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	21d	1	0.32mi
4180 Crayton Rd Unit E7 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$8,900	$5.56	23d	1	0.38mi
1240 Shady Rest Ln #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$6,000	$3.71	13d	1	0.43mi
4200 Belair Ln Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1406	$6,500	$4.62	23d	5	0.44mi
656 Binnacle Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1808	$10,000	$5.53	23d	1	0.48mi
355 Park Shore Dr Unit 1-114 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1574	$13,000	$8.26	23d	1	0.48mi
1082 Capri Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$9,000	$6.00	23d	1	0.52mi
250 Park Shore Dr #803 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$15,000	$8.88	23d	1	0.52mi
4300 Belair Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,750	$5.62	13d	2	0.54mi
3200 Binnacle Dr Unit D3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1180	$9,000	$7.63	21d	1	0.64mi
4523 Fluvia Ave Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1050	$5,500	$5.24	23d	1	0.65mi
4525 Fluvia Ave Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1050	$5,500	$5.24	23d	1	0.65mi
3105 Riviera Dr Unit A201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1625	$8,000	$4.92	23d	1	0.75mi
4041 Gulf Shore Blvd N #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1735	$6,900	$3.98	23d	1	0.77mi
4041 Gulf Shore Blvd N #305 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1735	$12,000	$6.92	23d	1	0.77mi
4041 Gulf Shore Blvd N #1505 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1735	$18,000	$10.37	23d	1	0.77mi
4041 Gulf Shore Blvd N #1705 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1850	$18,500	$10.00	23d	1	0.77mi
3500 Gulf Shore Blvd N Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1258	$7,650	$6.08	23d	2	0.79mi
4255 Gulf Shore Blvd N #1403 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1536	$12,500	$8.14	23d	1	0.79mi
3030 Binnacle Dr #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$5,000	$4.58	23d	1	0.80mi
45 High Point Cir S #303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1015	$5,500	$5.42	23d	1	0.81mi
4530 Gulf Shore Blvd N Unit 2-122 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1786	$15,000	$8.40	23d	1	0.83mi
4005 Gulf Shore Blvd N #605 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$10,000	$7.89	23d	1	0.84mi
4005 Gulf Shore Blvd N #800 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1646	$12,000	$7.29	23d	1	0.84mi
4005 Gulf Shore Blvd N #700 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1646	$17,000	$10.33	13d	1	0.84mi
4005 Gulf Shore Blvd N #607 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$14,000	$10.00	23d	1	0.84mi
4001 Gulf Shore Blvd N #500 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1646	$15,000	$9.11	23d	1	0.85mi
4001 Gulf Shore Blvd N #707 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$20,000	$15.79	23d	1	0.85mi
4001 Gulf Shore Blvd N #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1247	$12,000	$9.62	23d	1	0.85mi
4001 Gulf Shore Blvd N #303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$9,000	$7.21	23d	1	0.85mi
4001 Gulf Shore Blvd N #505 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1271	$9,000	$7.08	13d	1	0.85mi
4001 Gulf Shore Blvd N #1106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1667	$12,500	$7.50	23d	1	0.85mi
4001 Gulf Shore Blvd N #803 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$13,000	$10.26	23d	1	0.85mi
4001 Gulf Shore Blvd N #1104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$11,000	$8.68	23d	1	0.85mi
4560 Gulf Shore Blvd N Unit 3-213 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1321	$8,500	$6.43	23d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $767 · $9,204/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $410,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $410,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $410,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $410,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $410,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $410,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $410,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $410,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $410,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $410,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $410,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $410,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $410,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    status Active
16. 2026-04-07
    status Pending With Contingencies
17. 2026-03-12
    price $410,000
18. 2026-02-21
    listed $419,000 Active
19. 2011-12-28
    soldstatus $218,000 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Enjoy the comfort and convenience of this maintenance free charming colonial style condominium. Easy access 1st floor, totally remodeled kitchen and baths with ceramic floors thruout, enclosed shuttered terrace/sunroom. City of Naples location provides all city services with short distance to shopping, dining, beach and all the charm of Naples. Assigned carport & storage. Small pet allowed. 55+ community with allowable exceptions.

20. 2011-12-28
    soldstatus $218,000

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Enjoy the comfort and convenience of this maintenance free charming colonial style condominium. Easy access 1st floor, totally remodeled kitchen and baths with ceramic floors thruout, enclosed shuttered terrace/sunroom. City of Naples location provides all city services with short distance to shopping, dining, beach and all the charm of Naples. Assigned carport & storage. Small pet allowed. 55+ community with allowable exceptions.

21. 2011-01-20
    listed $229,000 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Enjoy the comfort and convenience of this maintenance free charming colonial style condominium. Easy access 1st floor, totally remodeled kitchen and baths with ceramic floors thruout, enclosed shuttered terrace/sunroom. City of Naples location provides all city services with short distance to shopping, dining, beach and all the charm of Naples. Assigned carport & storage. Small pet allowed. 55+ community with allowable exceptions.

22. 2000-03-22
    soldstatus $100,000
23. 1987-08-01
    soldstatus $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 62% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$6,150
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,969
• − Management: −$4,969
• − HOA: −$9,204
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$30
• After-tax cash flow: $5,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #1903

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Naples, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,299
• Household income: $116,875
• Rent vs Own: 14.1% rent · 85.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 311.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -327.53%
• Current HPI: 315.1396
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.55%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+350.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $410,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $419,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $218,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-28 Sold (MLS) $218,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-01-20 Listed $229,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2000-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1987-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $667 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.