205 Connolly Rd · Pine Forest, TX 77662

$50,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1979 1.46 ac lot $76/sqft · 19% below area Est $62k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity is knocking on the river! This 1 bedroom, 1 bath home sits on approximately 1.467 acres and has already been gutted and partially remodeled-making it the perfect blank canvas for your next project. Whether you're an investor, flipper, or buyer with a vision, this property is ready for someone to step in and bring it back to life. Enjoy peaceful river life and the potential to create a custom retreat or income- producing property. With demo already complete, you can skip the heavy lifting and focus on designing and finishing to your style.

Key facts

• Partially remodeled
• Custom retreat
• 1.46 acre lot

Tags

• PARTIALLY REMODELED
• CUSTOM RETREAT
• INCOME PRODUCING PROPERTY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence
• Exterior features: Approximately 1.46-acre lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-80/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $49k (2.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($979 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 5.3% in Pine Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#659 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Vidor ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #422 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.99%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,857
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -19.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-8,243
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-6,578
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77662

• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $850/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $988

Max offer price $48,826

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $8	+0% $-7	+5% $-21	+10% $-35
Rent	-10% $-84	-5% $-45	+0% $-7	+5% $32	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $6	base $-7	+0.5pp $-20	+1.0pp $-33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $50,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $50,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $50,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $50,000 Active 557-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $850 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $915 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$850
• − Insurance: −$5,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$940
• − Management: −$940
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable loss: −$601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$144
• After-tax cash flow: $64/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vidor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,169
• Composite: 33.95/100
• National rank: #5331
• State rank: #422 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pine Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #659
• US rank: #12393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,041
• Household income: $72,243
• Rent vs Own: 19.6% rent · 80.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 401.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.46%
• Current HPI: 141.0844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $50,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $850 · +38.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.