554 Canterbury Farms Rd · Grimes, AL 36350

$69,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $54k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath home at 554 Canterbury Farms Road offers a great opportunity for investors or renovators looking for their next project. The property is in need of repairs and updates, making it ideal for a full renovation or flip. Located in Midland City with convenient access to local amenities.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1979
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#414 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime D-.
• Dale County (rural): math 31% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 129 in AL (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Dale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dale County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.10%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $53,550
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
641 Canterbury Farms Rd	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,075 (+2%)	1mo	$55,000	$51	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $79,717
• Equity at exit: $62,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.32×
• Total profit: $201,981
• Equity at exit: $135,800

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36350

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $501/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $554

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-21
   listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $501 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $501 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$501
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $7,127
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,710
• After-tax cash flow: $6,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dale County
• NCES district ID: 0101050
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,949
• Composite: 34.16/100
• National rank: #5277
• State rank: #26 of 129 in AL

Livability — Grimes

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #414
• US rank: #22696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grimes, AL
• Population (ZIP): 7,675

Population outlook (Dale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,805 people
• By 2030: 45,176 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 41,523 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 37,575 · -19.7%
• By 2075: 28,931 · -38.2%
• By 2100: 22,172 · -52.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Dale

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.3) · D 23.5% · R 75.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -52.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.3 2020: R+46.3 2016: R+50.4 2012: R+42.2 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.34%
• Current HPI: 219.7326
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — WBR
• 2026-01-21 Listed $69,900 WBR

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $501 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.