38 Bramble Ct · Fruit Cove, FL 32092

$287,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,707 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 1,742 sqft lot $168/sqft · 6% below area Est $306k · 6% under $179/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SHORT SALE ! Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom townhome offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the charming curb appeal with coordinated exterior detailing, paver driveway, private garage, and welcoming entry. Inside, you are greeted by light wood-look tile flooring, neutral paint, and an open-concept layout that feels bright and airy. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, recessed lighting, a large center island with seating, and a deep undermount sink with upgraded faucet. Sliding glass doors lead to a screened-in lanai with brick paver flooring -- a peaceful retreat perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The additional front sitting area offers even more space to unwind. Upstairs, the generous primary suite features plush carpeting, abundant natural light, and a private en-suite bath. Secondary bedrooms are well-sized and versatile ideal for guests, home office space, or hobbies. Bathrooms are clean and bright with updated vanities and modern finishes. A convenient half bath is located on the main level for guests. Additional highlights include ceiling fans throughout, ample storage, a dedicated dining area, and a functional open loft space upstairs that can serve as a flex room or secondary living area.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Private garage
• Paver driveway

Tags

• PAVER DRIVEWAY
• PRIVATE GARAGE
• LIGHT WOOD LOOK TILE FLOORING
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WHITE CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-287 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in Fruit Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#469 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Timberlin Creek Elementary School (math 81% / reading 85%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 1,311 students, 9% FRL); Switzerland Point Middle School (math 80% / reading 72%, grade A, #34 of 571 statewide, top 6%, 1,430 students, 5% FRL); Bartram Trail High School (math 68% / reading 75%, grade B+, #49 of 667 statewide, top 8%, 2,493 students, 4% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1335 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,272 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.29%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,497
• List price: $287,000
• Delta: -6.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Alston Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-2%)	2mo	$380,000	$227	86
73 Bluebonnet Way	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,660 (-3%)	0mo	$352,500	$212	76
56 Gilchrist Way	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,752 (+3%)	4mo	$390,000	$223	73
251 Windswept Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+5%)	2mo	$340,000	$190	72
39 Gilchrist Way	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-2%)	6mo	$375,000	$224	71
237 Windswept Way	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+5%)	4mo	$420,000	$235	71
47 Buffalo Ct	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,798 (+5%)	1mo	$441,990	$246	68
26 Gilchrist Way	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+5%)	4mo	$390,000	$217	68
91 Dade Ct	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,866 (+9%)	9mo	$505,000	$271	47
52 Smokerise Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,943 (+14%)	1mo	$496,485	$256	42
640 Kingbird Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,943 (+14%)	8mo	$471,480	$243	29
592 Kngbird Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,943 (+14%)	9mo	$460,000	$237	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-71,840
• Equity at exit: $42,793

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-113,327
• Equity at exit: $24,815

Cash invested: $80,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32092

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1335
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,549 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax from tax record: −$497 /mo · $5,970/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$179
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,913

Max offer price $236,272

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-125	-5% $-206	+0% $-287	+5% $-368	+10% $-450
Rent	-10% $-489	-5% $-388	+0% $-287	+5% $-186	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-143	-0.5pp $-214	base $-287	+0.5pp $-362	+1.0pp $-437

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,750
• Closing costs: $8,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
380 Belfort Ct Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,500	$1.40	25d	1	0.04mi
413 Rosemont Dr Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,125	$1.19	25d	1	0.05mi
78 Gaston Ct Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1635	$2,250	$1.38	25d	1	0.48mi
36 Viceroy Ct Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1631	$2,850	$1.75	19d	1	0.61mi
18 Longtail Dr Saint Augustine, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1714	$3,142	$1.83	3d	9	0.68mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $179 · $2,148/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $287,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $287,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $287,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $287,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $287,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $287,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $287,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $287,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $287,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $287,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $287,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $287,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $287,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $287,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-03-13
    price $287,000 1525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1525 chars)

    SHORT SALE ! Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom townhome offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the charming curb appeal with coordinated exterior detailing, paver driveway, private garage, and welcoming entry. Inside, you are greeted by light wood-look tile flooring, neutral paint, and an open-concept layout that feels bright and airy. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, recessed lighting, a large center island with seating, and a deep undermount sink with upgraded faucet. Sliding glass doors lead to a screened-in lanai with brick paver flooring -- a peaceful retreat perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The additional front sitting area offers even more space to unwind. Upstairs, the generous primary suite features plush carpeting, abundant natural light, and a private en-suite bath. Secondary bedrooms are well-sized and versatile ideal for guests, home office space, or hobbies. Bathrooms are clean and bright with updated vanities and modern finishes. A convenient half bath is located on the main level for guests. Additional highlights include ceiling fans throughout, ample storage, a dedicated dining area, and a functional open loft space upstairs that can serve as a flex room or secondary living area.

16. 2026-03-11
    status Active 1525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1525 chars)

    SHORT SALE ! Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom townhome offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the charming curb appeal with coordinated exterior detailing, paver driveway, private garage, and welcoming entry. Inside, you are greeted by light wood-look tile flooring, neutral paint, and an open-concept layout that feels bright and airy. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, recessed lighting, a large center island with seating, and a deep undermount sink with upgraded faucet. Sliding glass doors lead to a screened-in lanai with brick paver flooring -- a peaceful retreat perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The additional front sitting area offers even more space to unwind. Upstairs, the generous primary suite features plush carpeting, abundant natural light, and a private en-suite bath. Secondary bedrooms are well-sized and versatile ideal for guests, home office space, or hobbies. Bathrooms are clean and bright with updated vanities and modern finishes. A convenient half bath is located on the main level for guests. Additional highlights include ceiling fans throughout, ample storage, a dedicated dining area, and a functional open loft space upstairs that can serve as a flex room or secondary living area.

17. 2026-03-09
    status Pending 1525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1525 chars)

    SHORT SALE ! Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom townhome offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the charming curb appeal with coordinated exterior detailing, paver driveway, private garage, and welcoming entry. Inside, you are greeted by light wood-look tile flooring, neutral paint, and an open-concept layout that feels bright and airy. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, recessed lighting, a large center island with seating, and a deep undermount sink with upgraded faucet. Sliding glass doors lead to a screened-in lanai with brick paver flooring -- a peaceful retreat perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The additional front sitting area offers even more space to unwind. Upstairs, the generous primary suite features plush carpeting, abundant natural light, and a private en-suite bath. Secondary bedrooms are well-sized and versatile ideal for guests, home office space, or hobbies. Bathrooms are clean and bright with updated vanities and modern finishes. A convenient half bath is located on the main level for guests. Additional highlights include ceiling fans throughout, ample storage, a dedicated dining area, and a functional open loft space upstairs that can serve as a flex room or secondary living area.

18. 2026-03-02
    price $293,000 1525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1525 chars)

    SHORT SALE ! Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom townhome offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the charming curb appeal with coordinated exterior detailing, paver driveway, private garage, and welcoming entry. Inside, you are greeted by light wood-look tile flooring, neutral paint, and an open-concept layout that feels bright and airy. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, recessed lighting, a large center island with seating, and a deep undermount sink with upgraded faucet. Sliding glass doors lead to a screened-in lanai with brick paver flooring -- a peaceful retreat perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The additional front sitting area offers even more space to unwind. Upstairs, the generous primary suite features plush carpeting, abundant natural light, and a private en-suite bath. Secondary bedrooms are well-sized and versatile ideal for guests, home office space, or hobbies. Bathrooms are clean and bright with updated vanities and modern finishes. A convenient half bath is located on the main level for guests. Additional highlights include ceiling fans throughout, ample storage, a dedicated dining area, and a functional open loft space upstairs that can serve as a flex room or secondary living area.

19. 2026-02-14
    listed $300,000 Active 1525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1525 chars)

    SHORT SALE ! Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom townhome offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the charming curb appeal with coordinated exterior detailing, paver driveway, private garage, and welcoming entry. Inside, you are greeted by light wood-look tile flooring, neutral paint, and an open-concept layout that feels bright and airy. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen, creating an ideal setting for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features white cabinetry, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, recessed lighting, a large center island with seating, and a deep undermount sink with upgraded faucet. Sliding glass doors lead to a screened-in lanai with brick paver flooring -- a peaceful retreat perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The additional front sitting area offers even more space to unwind. Upstairs, the generous primary suite features plush carpeting, abundant natural light, and a private en-suite bath. Secondary bedrooms are well-sized and versatile ideal for guests, home office space, or hobbies. Bathrooms are clean and bright with updated vanities and modern finishes. A convenient half bath is located on the main level for guests. Additional highlights include ceiling fans throughout, ample storage, a dedicated dining area, and a functional open loft space upstairs that can serve as a flex room or secondary living area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,970 · $497/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,970 · $497/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,076
• − Property taxes: −$5,970
• − Insurance: −$1,435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,447
• − Management: −$2,447
• − HOA: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$8,349
• Taxable loss: −$8,281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,987
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom townhome is ready for new owners. The interior is in good condition with light wood-look tile flooring and neutral paint. The exterior features a paver driveway and a welcoming entry. The property is located in a desirable area with a community pool and green space.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Both replace carpet with hardwood — improves both resale and rental value
• Both install smart home devices — increases home's marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both replace carpet with hardwood — improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both install smart home devices — increases home's marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fruit Cove

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #8490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 53,071
• Household income: $131,020
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 706.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.26%
• Current HPI: 259.732
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $287,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-03-09 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $293,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $300,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+41.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,970 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.