8461 Cochise Cir · White Mountain Lake, AZ 85901

$35,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1980 0.27 ac lot $48/sqft · 65% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**** SOLD AS IS**** Value is in the land, Electric water, propane hook up and septic. ( seller will have inspected and pumped if necessary.) Home is sold as is Seller will not give a credit or fix any needed repairs to home. Shed is included. LAKE RIGHTS included. An open house will be held May 9th From 12 noon to 3pm Come in with your highest and best offer. All offers will be considered and responded to the following week of the 11th.

Key facts

• Shed
• Electric water
• Septic

Tags

• ELECTRIC WATER
• SEPTIC
• SHED
• LAKE RIGHTS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Fee simple ownership; Dirt road access
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Shed(s); County-maintained road; Lake community access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window/wall air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace; Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Cap rate 41.0% vs local median 4.4% in White Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#141 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Show Low Preschool (11 students, 0% FRL); Show Low Junior High School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 587 students, 45% FRL); Show Low High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 877 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 52% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 895 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 123.78%
• DSCR: 6.51
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,172
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -65.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8461 Cochise Cir	0.00mi	1/1.0	729 (+0%)	0mo	$49,025	$67	99
8367 Navajo Dr	0.52mi	2/1.5 (+1)	784 (+8%)	20mo	$165,000	$210	39
8596 Fox Cir	0.74mi	1/1.0	624 (-14%)	8mo	$105,000	$168	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $58,718
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.68×
• Total profit: $134,061
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 895
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,552 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $204/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $1,011

Break-even live

Break-even rent $272

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,031	-5% $1,021	+0% $1,011	+5% $1,001	+10% $991
Rent	-10% $888	-5% $950	+0% $1,011	+5% $1,072	+10% $1,133
Rate	-1.0pp $1,028	-0.5pp $1,020	base $1,011	+0.5pp $1,002	+1.0pp $993

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 455-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   **** SOLD AS IS**** Value is in the land, Electric water, propane hook up and septic. ( seller will have inspected and pumped if necessary.) Home is sold as is Seller will not give a credit or fix any needed repairs to home. Shed is included. LAKE RIGHTS included. An open house will be held May 9th From 12 noon to 3pm Come in with your highest and best offer. All offers will be considered and responded to the following week of the 11th.

2. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   **** SOLD AS IS**** Value is in the land, Electric water, propane hook up and septic. ( seller will have inspected and pumped if necessary.) Home is sold as is Seller will not give a credit or fix any needed repairs to home. Shed is included. LAKE RIGHTS included. An open house will be held May 9th From 12 noon to 3pm Come in with your highest and best offer. All offers will be considered and responded to the following week of the 11th.

3. 2026-05-04
   listed $35,000 Active 441-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   **** SOLD AS IS**** Value is in the land, Electric water, propane hook up and septic. ( seller will have inspected and pumped if necessary.) Home is sold as is Seller will not give a credit or fix any needed repairs to home. Shed is included. LAKE RIGHTS included. An open house will be held May 9th From 12 noon to 3pm Come in with your highest and best offer. All offers will be considered and responded to the following week of the 11th.

4. 2026-05-04
   listed $35,000 Active 455-char remark

   Show marketing remark (441 chars)

   **** SOLD AS IS**** Value is in the land, Electric water, propane hook up and septic. ( seller will have inspected and pumped if necessary.) Home is sold as is Seller will not give a credit or fix any needed repairs to home. Shed is included. LAKE RIGHTS included. An open house will be held May 9th From 12 noon to 3pm Come in with your highest and best offer. All offers will be considered and responded to the following week of the 11th.

5. 2024-07-01
   price $75,000
6. 2023-08-16
   soldstatus $120,000 Closed
7. 2023-08-16
   soldstatus $120,000
8. 2023-07-27
   historical
9. 2023-07-23
   price $134,900
10. 2023-06-23
    listed $139,900 Active
11. 2016-02-24
    soldstatus $50,000
12. 2009-07-16
    soldstatus $63,000
13. 2005-09-02
    soldstatus $49,000
14. 1997-05-09
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $204 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $231 · $19/mo
• Expected delta: +$27/yr (+$2/mo · 13.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$204
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,490
• − Management: −$1,490
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $12,285
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,948
• After-tax cash flow: $9,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — White Mountain Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #16914

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: White Mountain Lake, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+96.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $49,025 WMMLS
• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $49,025 ARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — WMMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $35,000 WMMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $35,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-01 Price Changed $75,000 WMMLS
• 2023-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-16 Sold (MLS) $120,000 WMMLS
• 2023-07-27 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2023-07-23 Price Changed $134,900 WMMLS
• 2023-06-23 Listed $139,900 WMMLS
• 2016-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2009-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1997-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $204 · +28.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.